The convictions that have underpinned three decades of President Mubarak's rule remain in place, writes Dina Ezzat In force since the assassination of president Anwar El-Sadat, the emergency laws have been renewed yet again, though the government has pledged, in line with promises made by some NDP leaders, that extraordinary powers will be invoked only in cases involving drug trafficking and terror. The latter, though, remains ill-defined. Al-Ahram Weekly sources say that President Hosni Mubarak himself was convinced by his aides -- both political and security affiliated --that it would be hazardous to cancel the emergency laws given the threat posed by "traditional and new" internal security concerns. The renewal of the emergency measures had been expected following a recent, high-level NDP meeting that promised "some restrictions" in the application of the controversial -- some human right activists would argue notorious -- laws. The extension of the state of emergency, in one form or another, was trailed in a speech delivered by President Mubarak last Thursday to mark Labour Day. During the 30-minute speech, the first of its kind since the president had surgery to remove his gall bladder on 6 March, Mubarak warned that current manifestations of political and social opposition would not be allowed to develop in a way that might open the door to "wide disorder". Mubarak's Labour Day speech reiterated the argument the president made in his speech on Sinai Liberation Day during the last week of April, crediting the current state of political expression to his "initiative for political reforms" presented and put into effect in 2005, including constitutional amendments that allowed for Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential elections and introducing some changes criticised by the opposition, not least the suspension of direct judicial supervision of elections and restrictions on the eligibility of candidates for the presidency. In his Labour Day speech the president chose to neither ignore, nor give close attention to, the growing number of protests by workers who feel they are losing out economically or being victimised by relentless privatisation. He made some general promises, including "always taking the side of workers against all those who try to undermine their rights", and said he would push for legislation to secure the right of workers whose companies are privatised, and others facing unemployment. He also reassured retired workers and civil servants that, under new social security rules, their retirement packages would be more generous. He declined, however, to promise the kind of pay increases that striking workers were hoping for. "Any increase in salaries is possible only if it is matched by a similar increase in productivity," said Mubarak. "Otherwise the increase would be swallowed by the inflation it causes." The most striking note sounded in Mubarak's speech last Thursday was the hints it contained that the president has no intention of stepping aside to make way for his son, Gamal, to succeed him. "Today, as a citizen, I find myself more determined and more convinced than ever before that I must keep on and move forward," he said. The quote, which flew in the face of speculation, both at home and abroad, that Gamal is Egypt's president-in- waiting, made the headlines of pro- and anti-government papers. Invariably it was interpreted that Mubarak, who became president in October 1981, intends to stand as the NDP candidate in the presidential poll scheduled for October 2011. Some sources from the executive and within NDP quarters insist this is the case, while others qualify it as the case "so far". Yet a third group maintainss that this is simply the impression the NDP is seeking to give in order to divert public attention from ongoing efforts to groom Gamal Mubarak for the presidential post. The majority of those who spoke to the Weekly belonged to the first group. Their arguments varied from the assessment that it would be "unlike" Mubarak to pass on the presidency to his son to suggestions that the president is the first to know how difficult it is to run a country with a population of 83 million, limited economic resources, modest development rates, endemic corruption, and foreign challenges that could well include a cut in Egypt's share of Nile water. The opposition seems to share the same view and the much touted succession scenario seems to be on the wane. Again, the arguments vary. Some suggest that the president has been convinced by his closest aides that he is the only person capable of facing up to the challenges posed by untraditional opposition quarters, especially those championing the candidacy of Mohamed El-Baradei, former chair of the International Agency for Atomic Energy, who is leading a limited but expanding national movement for constitutional amendments that seeks to bring fully-fledged democracy to Egypt. "El-Baradei changed the equation" and "El-Baradei gave a blow to the scenario of succession", they say. Speculation that 47-year-old Gamal would succeed his father began when he was appointed head of the NDP's powerful "Policies Committee", an influential body in formulating not only government policies but also in deciding who will implement them. Gamal Mubarak's subsequent promotion to the post of assistant secretary- general of the NDP was seen by some as one more step towards Egypt's top office. Gamal Mubarak is a member of the NDP's 45-member Higher Council, from which the party must choose its presidential candidate. The scenario of succession was frequently denied by the president and his son. Over the past two months, though, according to both pro- and anti-succession observers, it has become increasingly unlikely, though some sources suggest it may only have been put on hold and could be resuscitated if "influential quarters" within the regime, the ruling party and certainly the powerful business community, have their say. But for the time being it seems clear that the old-guard enjoys the upper hand. They insist that Mubarak, health permitting, should run for a sixth term next year, when he would be 83 years old. A simple and not very festive observation of the president's 82nd birthday is said to have taken place, with the presidential family comforted by improvements in Mubarak's health eight weeks after surgery, and the presence of a first grand-daughter, Farida Gamal Mubarak, but still grieving the loss of Mubarak's eldest and favourite grandson, Mohamed Alaa Mubarak, who passed away on 18 May last year. So far Mubarak has spent 60 of his 82 years in public service. He began his career in the Air Forces, was eventually promoted to chief of the Air Forces and appointed vice-president by president Anwar El-Sadat in 1975. Colleagues who knew Mubarak as a young officer confirm what the president himself has said in several press interviews, that he never entertained high political ambition. Indeed, during his first term in office Mubarak promised to amend the constitution to remove the prerogative introduced by Sadat allowing for a lifetime presidency. The promise was not kept, allegedly due to the advice of aides who argued that internal and regional security conditions in the wake of the dramatic assassination of Sadat and the then controversial peace agreement between Egypt and Israel mitigated against it. During close to three decades in office Mubarak has, as supporters and opponents attest, exhibited considerable discipline, even if he chooses, for one reason or another, to exercise a certain degree of tolerance towards signs of inefficiency or worse. Certainly he has made continuing efforts to stress his affiliation with the middle classes and to promise support for the economically disadvantaged. Unlike Sadat, Mubarak has never been photographed walking a dog or smoking a pipe. His demeanour is composed and there are no eye- catching cuff links or flagrantly elegant suits such as those sported by Sadat. But as sociologist Galal Amin and economist Ahmed Sayed El-Naggar have argued in books on the rule of Mubarak, when it comes to policies the president has deviated little from the guidelines set by his predecessor: Egypt is still a keen ally of the US, despite the cold alliance years during the second administration of George W Bush, marked by American pressure on human rights and democracy issues; Egypt is still fully committed to its peace treaty with Israel and has generously expanded the interpretation of the clauses of this agreement to include unprecedented forms of security arrangements and economic cooperation, though Mubarak has never been to Israel except to attend the 1995 funeral of Yitzhak Rabin, assassinated by an anti-peace extremist; Egypt has also implemented and upgraded Sadat's open door economic policies. Since becoming president, Mubarak has retained a small circle of advisors. His closest aides have remained the same, whatever changes that have been made were due mainly to the decease of some and the retirement of others. And, says one insider, it is "ultimately to those aides that have long served with the president" that he listens when he needs advice. The choice of the NDP candidates for the mid-term Shura Council elections is a good example of the confidence Mubarak has in his old staff over the new political team that surrounds Gamal Mubarak. "I am not in favour of electric shock policies," Mubarak said during his first weeks in office. Over 28 years as president of the republic and chief of the Armed Forces he has grown no fonder of the kind of political U-turns that characterised the rule of his predecessor. Political scientist Hassan Abu Taleb, the long-term editor of the annual report monitoring domestic and foreign developments issued by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, likes to divide Mubarak's presidency into three stages. The first phase, says Abu Taleb, was during the 1980s, when Mubarak focussed on consolidating Egypt's foreign relations, especially with Arab countries that had boycotted Sadat over his unilateral peace deal with Israel, as well as on the negotiations that would lead to Sinai being returned to Egypt following its occupation by Israel. On the home front, Abu Taleb argues, Mubarak spent the first decade of his rule opening up to the political forces with which Sadat had entered into confrontation. Mubarak also sought to defuse tensions between Muslims and Copts. The second phase, the 1990s, was dominated by economic reforms while the third, which started immediately after 9/11, with the US war on terror and subsequent occupation of Iraq, has seen Mubarak return to earlier concerns, the pressing demand by the opposition for more substantive political reforms and policies more attentive to social equity. The president is clearly making efforts to assure all concerned, at home and abroad, that he is up to the tasks ahead. And in an uncertain world at least one thing is sure, that he will tackle them in the manner he has always tackled challenges, with no sudden changes and no unexpected turns.
