Dina Ezzat follows the guidelines of Egyptian foreign policy in the wake of Mubarak's election President Hosni Mubarak might not have dedicated the best part of his electoral platform to address foreign policy matters. After all, for many Egyptians foreign policy issues -- excluding the Palestinian cause -- are not of paramount importance if compared to the more pressing day-to-day concerns, like jobs and salaries. Thus the debate, analysis and criticism of the president's campaign did not focus much on foreign policy. However, Mubarak did stress his dedication to pursuing the key parametres of foreign policy that have always -- in his own words -- kept Egypt safe, strong and prosperous: good and friendly relations with all countries especially world powers and immediate neighbours, close rapport with Arab countries, constant support of the Arab League and the promotion of the cause of regional peace and stability. This said, foreign policy issues are, as they have always been, of paramount importance to the Egyptian state and its president. As most commentators, including the Egypt- firsters, would concur, foreign policy is essential to Egypt's regional status and international relations. It is because Egypt is central to issues such as the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, developments in problems facing Arab countries including Iraq, Sudan and Syria and Cairo's initiatives on Africa and the Mediterranean that it is a leading regional nation that must be consulted by all concerned regional and international powers on developments related to the Middle East, Africa and the Mediterranean. As he begins a new six-year term in office, Mubarak seems set to embrace the same principles he has always observed: close Arab ties, systematic rapport with African and other Third World states, warm ties with the US and stable relations with Israel. But judging by the available indicators, Egypt under Mubarak seems set for some not so typical moves. One front of expected commotion is relations with the US. Foreign policy advisors and architects seem to believe it is no longer in Egypt's interest to attempt to downplay its close association with the US. "We fully believe there is not a country in this world that does not attempt to garner the support and friendship of the US. This is very clear," said one informal foreign policy advisor. "The recent Pakistani move to open up to Israel is but one example of this general trend. Egypt that has for a quarter of a decade maintained good relations with the US has no reason to pretend otherwise -- even to please the anti-American quarter of public opinion." The schedules are not final but President Mubarak's visit to Washington, which didn't take place in 2005 due to disagreements over internal Egyptian affairs, is being tentatively set for early 2006. Cairo is already busy preparing for the trip. While members of the Egyptian Embassy in Washington have begun knocking on every relevant door in the US administration, Congress and think-tankers, there is also a group of key pro-American and US-friendly Egyptian intellectuals and businessmen holding talks with the new US ambassador in Cairo and key US Middle East advisors in Washington. Meanwhile, Cairo is also considering new Middle East initiatives and moves, some concerning the Arab-Israeli issue and others concerning Iraq, to be discussed in any future Egyptian-American talks at various levels. Egypt was hoping that its proposed Arab summit would serve as consultations on these matters but it now seems that the chances of convening a summit in the near future are not good. "We are continuing our consultations with Arab capitals on bilateral levels," said one source. It is clear that these consultations include the current crisis in Syrian-US relations. So far Egyptian efforts have proved fruitful in encouraging Damascus to show more open- mindedness towards the international investigation concerning the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri. Cairo has also dissuaded Damascus from sending a high-level Syrian delegation to the UN General Assembly summit in New York this week in order to avoid an unnecessary clash of addresses by the Syrian and US presidents. What remains unclear is what Egypt is planning to do about Syrian-Israeli relations. If Cairo manages a breakthrough on this front, it could prompt a total shift in Syrian-US relations. But is such a breakthrough possible? And could it happen before Syrian-American relations sour further? No doubt, an Egyptian success story would win for Cairo some badly needed brownie points to make up for disagreements with Washington on its handling of reforms. Meanwhile, it seems to be a fact that without adopting a more daring policy in its relationship with Israel, Egypt is unlikely to take its US ties to the fast lane, specifically in signing a free trade agreement, seen as crucial to the Egyptian economy and consequently to the status of the regime and its ability to live up to its electoral campaign promises. Egypt appears to be still considering its options on this front but one thing is clear: Cairo does not seem ready to pursue any uncalled for confrontation with Israel and in fact, will work to avoid such a situation. Obviously, under Mubarak, Cairo will continue to avoid, as it has done before, getting too close to Israel. But Cairo recently signed a three-way trade agreement with Israel and the US, and has sold national gas to it. In the next few months Egypt will attempt to invoke other signs of warmth in a bilateral relationship often called a cold peace. A visit by President Hosni Mubarak to Israel would make the relationship as close as ever. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have been waiting for such a visit since 1995 when Mubarak participated in the funeral of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. In November, the month of legislative elections, Mubarak could make another similar visit, to attend a special commemoration marking the 10th anniversary of Rabin's death. In an interview with the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahranot Mubarak indicated that he might go. But days before the elections, his spokesman Suleiman Awad said the president had no plans for any overseas trip until the end of 2005. Mubarak can afford an hour or so to briefly pay tribute to Rabin -- a man he often praised as an Israeli leader capable of making peace -- in an event expected to draw a high level international presence including high-ranking US officials. However, in the end Mubarak is highly unlikely to visit Israel and hold official talks with its prime minister because of the effect such a visit would have on Mubarak's home front image. The damage could be much greater than any benefit such a visit would accrue in terms of Egyptian-US relations. Egypt, however, is working overtime to encourage Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. This week, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit said that Cairo is holding close consultations with the international quartet on the next move. Moreover, Egypt is refraining from criticising any Arab or Muslim country that pursues closer rapport with Israel following the Israeli disengagement from Gaza. In a press statement on Tuesday, shortly before flying to New York to head the Egyptian delegation to the UN General Assembly summit, Abul-Gheit cautiously welcomed the Israeli pullout. "We hope this would constitute a step towards the resumption of the peace process and between Palestinians and the Israelis and the Israeli withdrawal from all Palestinian territories occupied in 1967," Abul-Gheit said. The statements might be read by some as mere clichés but they are in fact a clear Egyptian priority -- and to judge by Palestinian officials, also a priority of the Palestinian Authority. It offers a new lease of life to the Palestinian-Israeli talks, at a pace not offensive to ultra-nationalist quarters but powerful, even aggressive enough, to prevent the resumption of Israeli attacks against Palestinian targets and retaliatory Palestinian suicide operations. When Mubarak forms a new government after the end of the parliamentary elections some of his expected foreign policy directives will include an order to refrain from public criticism of Israeli policies -- except in limited fashion -- and promote signs of Egyptian-American rapprochement.
