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Elections uncertainty
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 17 - 11 - 2005

Despite wresting gains from Israel, the ruling party of the Palestinian Authority looks set to postpone scheduled polls yet again, writes Khaled Amayreh in the West Bank
Despite repeated assertions by leading Palestinian Authority (PA) officials that the upcoming legislative elections, slated for 25 January, will be held on time, there are serious indications that further postponement may well be inevitable.
The polls, originally scheduled to take place in July, were delayed for six months, ostensibly to give Fatah, the PA's de facto ruling party, more time to prepare itself in the face of a strong challenge from the Islamic Hamas movement. It is clear, however, that Fatah has not made good use of the extended respite, as evident from lingering internal power struggles, divisions and cronyism that continue to undercut its ability to keep Hamas at bay, or at least prevent an outright Hamas victory.
Much of the trouble facing Fatah these days stems from the so-called "inter-generational power struggle" between young Fatah activists at the grassroots and intermediate levels and the "old guard". Young regional leaders are insisting that they be allowed to contest Fatah's "primaries", due to take place in a few weeks throughout the occupied territories. The primaries, to take place in major towns and regions, will decide whom the party will put forward as candidates for the 25 January elections.
Legitimate as they are, these demands are more or less rejected by Fatah's old guard who argue that, "the youngsters' turn has not come yet." Veteran Fatah leaders, many of who have lost popularity among ordinary Palestinians, contend that the "young aspirants" (some have used the term "rebels") lack the requisite political experience and qualifications that a law-maker must hold.
The young aspirants, who, unlike the old guard, enjoy vigorous backing from Fatah's grassroots supporters, retort somewhat convincingly that "democracy is democracy", and that in the final analysis Fatah supporters and the Palestinian masses at large should have the final say.
Nevertheless, the problem with this argument -- however logical and plausible it may seem -- is the fact that the young aspirants, many of whom are former Shabiba college campus leaders, don't really enjoy wide support among ordinary Palestinians. Hence, a Fatah list dominated by young and largely inexperienced aspirants, even if led by such popular leaders such as imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, could face unexpected difficulties, especially in large towns where Hamas is solidly popular.
Facing scenarios unpredictable, Fatah last week decided to "suspend" preparations for its primaries in several parts of the West Bank. In Hebron, for example, the local Fatah leadership reportedly informed the central PA (Fatah) leadership in Ramallah that, "this is not the most opportune time for both the legislative and local elections."
The message was carefully received in Ramallah and the Palestinian minister for local governance, Khaled Al-Qawasmi, issued a hasty decree postponing the local elections in Hebron until a further notice.
In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Al-Qawasmi blamed "Israeli impediments" for the postponement. "I know some people will say it is because we dread a Hamas victory that we have postponed the elections. However, the truth of the matter is that the postponement is the result of Israeli restrictive measures that would corrode and undermine the credibility of the elections," he said.
The Palestinian minister said Israel refused to commit itself to withdraw its occupation army from Hebron for a period of three days to facilitate the organisation of the elections. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev denied Palestinian "allegations" in this regard, saying the PA never notified Israel of its intention to organise elections in Hebron.
"I can assure you that the PA has not approached us on this matter. They have not asked us to facilitate the elections," Regev said.
Predictably, the postponement of elections has drawn angry reaction from Hamas and other Palestinian political parties in contest with Fatah. Hamas leaders in Hebron labelled the decision a "betrayal of the Palestinian people and democracy".
"This decision shows that the PA is not really committed to democracy and that it can't be trusted with the fate of the Palestinian people and its just cause," said Aziz Dweik, a local Islamic leader and professor of geography at An-Najah National University in Nablus. "We know who is behind this undemocratic decision -- it is those who want to perpetuate the status quo and maintain stagnation, corruption, misgovernment and despotism," Dweik said.
On Sunday evening, immediately after the announcement of the decision, hundreds of Hamas supporters took to the streets, castigating the "rape of the people's will". On Monday, Hamas and other faction leaders vowed during a press conference to "do what it takes to cancel this suspicious decision".
Hamas said it would organise a massive demonstration in Hebron on Friday, probably after the Friday congregation prayers, to protest against the decision.
Interestingly, the PA leadership, including President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, refused to comment on the decision.
The organisation of the Palestinian elections was at the top of the agenda in talks between visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Abbas in Ramallah on Monday. Abbas reportedly exhorted Rice to pressure Israel to end the Rafah border crossing crisis by agreeing to allow the Palestinians to operate the crossing in the presence of a third party, namely European Union professionals. By Tuesday, Palestinian pressure seemed to have worked. Moreover, Israel agreed to allow the PA to start rebuilding the Palestinian seaport in Gaza City. This is but one necessary step among many towards rebuilding a shattered Palestinian economy, virtually destroyed by sustained Israeli bombardment of Palestinian facilities and also by a hermetic blockade of Palestinian population centres both in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Israel also reportedly agreed to open a "temporary safe passage" for Palestinians between the West Bank and Gaza. The US hopes that such modest measures will enhance Fatah's image and strengthen Abbas vis-à-vis Hamas in the upcoming elections, when -- and if -- they are held. If past experience is relevant, however, it is doubtful whether Israel will allow for the smooth freedom of movement between Gaza and the West Bank, as Israel's domestic intelligence agency, the Shin Bet, is granted a final say in all matters pertaining to the Palestinians.


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