The IAEA is as divided as ever over Iran's nuclear file, reports Rasha Saad On Monday the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) 35-member board of directors met in Vienna to discuss the Iranian nuclear file. That they were still debating what to do about Iran when Al-Ahram Weekly went to press indicates the extent of the conundrum Iran's nuclear file now poses. This week's meeting follows last month's referral of Iran to the Security Council, based on what the IAEA called "a lack of confidence" in Iran's nuclear intentions. At the time a month's grace period was set aside before IAEA Director Mohamed El-Baradei's report was forwarded to the UN during which it was hoped diplomatic efforts might contain the crisis. Now, though, the report is being discussed. Widely leaked, it charges that Iran has begun feeding uranium gas into centrifuges and has hampered the work of inspectors. It was, however, Washington's rejection of a new Russian proposal designed to allow Iran to undertake small-scale uranium enrichment without obtaining the technology to build nuclear weapons that was the topic of most discussions. The Russian proposal was an attempt to find a face- saving formula under which Iran could agree to refrain from enriching uranium on an industrial scale while conducting small-scale research. The proposal divided IAEA members and led to the meeting being extended to three days. Describing the mood of polarisation in ViennaIranian expert Sadeq Al-Husseini told the Weekly, "there is a sort of a cold war going on between Iran and the US inside the IAEA." "If the regime were allowed to pursue any sort of enrichment-related activity on its own soil it could use the technology developed in a clandestine way to develop nuclear weapons," said White House spokesman Scott McClellan, explaining the US position which is supported by Britain, Germany and France. The US has said that only a complete suspension of Iran's nuclear activities can now prevent the Security Council from taking action. El-Baradei, however, sounded optimistic on Monday that the stand-off could be defused. "I'm still very much hopeful that in the next week an agreement will be reached," he told reporters. El-Baradei has urged that negotiations continue and any escalation of the situation will be unhelpful. According to sources El-Baradei believes referring the nuclear file to the Security Council will only reinforce the position of Iran's hardliners. China was also optimistic that the issue could be settled away from the Security Council, with Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing saying on Tuesday, "there is still time for a settlement within the framework of the IAEA." Meanwhile the US and Europe seemed determined to step up pressure on Tehran. This week US officials appeared keen to send a message to Iran. John Bolton, US Ambassador to the UN, warned that America had been "beefing up defensive measures" to thwart Iran's nuclear programme. The warning was repeated by Vice-President Dick Cheney who said Iran will face "meaningful consequences" if it persists in defying the international community. For some, Washington's push for referral to the Security Council, the leaked CIA reports and stern official warnings point to one thing; Iran is being pushed towards an Iraqi-like scenario. Not so, says Tehran-based Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran with the International Crisis Group. "Given the disastrous consequences of the Iraq war," he says, there has been a concerted effort on the part of the Bush administration to take a more deliberate, multi-lateral and diplomatic approach to Iran. Sadjadpour adds that the US has of late been following the lead of the Europeans, particularly the British, when it is over Iran. "The Europeans are troubled by Iran's behaviour but they are also far more reluctant to embark on any type of military confrontation," he told the Weekly. Few Iranians believe their country will suffer the same fate as Iraq, not only because of international opposition to any such moves but because they are convinced the nuclear case is being hyped in an attempt to pressure Tehran to make concessions elsewhere, over Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. "The Americans are exaggerating the Iranian nuclear file to obtain concessions from the Iranians elsewhere in the region and to help get them out of their Iraqi quagmire," says Al-Husseini. That the shift in European attitudes towards Iran -- from pursuing negotiations to backing the US drive to refer Iran to the Security Council -- coincided with the election of ultra-conservative Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also suggests a political agenda at play. "Whatever Iran's leadership might think, Ahmadinejad's belligerence has damaged the Iranian position," insists Sadjadpour. He argues that had the previous nuclear negotiating team, headed by reformist Hassan Rowhani, been kept Iran would be in a stronger position than it is now. "The previous team was far more experienced and appreciated the need to make good on Iran's bottom line position -- the right to enrich -- while at the same time avoiding Security Council referral. The new team was less skilful in its negotiating techniques and dismissive about referral." Meanwhile Iran remains defiant. The Islamic Republic has warned that if the UN Security Council becomes involved it will resume full-scale nuclear enrichment. It has denounced Al-Baradei's report as "politicised" and Ahmadinejad has said that Iran will not be "bullied". He called on the IAEA to compensate his country for losses incurred in suspending nuclear research for the last two years. Iranian optimism is unlikely to be dented even if Tehran is referred to the Security Council. Many Iranians then expect even more intense diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. "Iran will continue to talk with the Russians and Chinese and will look for other supporters to help bring the nuclear file back to the IAEA," believes Al-Husseini. During the next few months he predicts that the Iranian nuclear file will be swinging back and forth. "There will be a lot of push and pull between Washington's supporters and those who support Iran and who will be negatively affected by the referral of the file to the Security Council. They will try to find a compromise between Iran's legitimate demands and international legitimacy."
