Lula's performance in Sunday's presidential poll will doubtless prompt him to try harder to outdo rival Chuchu later this month, writes Gamal Nkrumah Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has struck a popular path during his four years in office. Nevertheless, he fell one per cent short of the 50 per cent needed to secure him the Brazilian presidency in last Sunday's poll. The incumbent Brazilian president is an ordinary man, long on good nature and duty, short on political savvy. But this is precisely his strength and the secret of his popular appeal. Lula's second term was as certain as conventional wisdom suggested. However, his main rival, Geraldo Alckmin leader of the centre-left Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), secured an impressive 41 per cent of the vote. This means that a run- off is scheduled for 29 October. Lula is putting on a brave face; he has Brazil's poor firmly behind him. Indeed, Sunday's poll exposed the political divide between rich and poor, north and south in Brazil. Alckmin, on the other hand, has the backing of southerners and the middle class. He appears confident of becoming Brazil's next president. Alckmin -- or "Chuchu", as he is endearingly known to his fans and supporters -- resigned his post as Sao Paulo governor to run for the presidency of South America's most populous nation. At the 2002 presidential poll that swept Lula to power, a third of Brazil's middle class voted for Lula, while no less than 50 per cent of the country's working class voted for him. Today, an even higher proportion of the working classes voted for Lula. But it seems the middle classes have deserted him in droves. For his part, Chuchu likes to play the role of the consensus-builder. This has worked quite well for him in the past. But, it will no longer do as leader of the opposition. He has capitalised on Lula's party's scandalous graft problems. It looks, however, like Chuchu's promised cuts weren't kind enough for the Brazilian electorate. Only wealthier Brazilians are impressed with Chuchu's anti-corruption crusade. Forecasts of a Lula triumph have been swirling around South America for weeks in spite of the scandals that have marred his party's reputation. Lula's healthy showing brings to an end the months of uncertainty that followed a series of corruption and graft calumnies in the country. A near majority of Brazil's 125 million eligible voters knew exactly whom they wanted as president. The poor love Lula because the cost of staples has come down considerably -- largely because of Lula's targeted tax cuts. Given the fiendish complexity of Brazil's socio-economic problems. Lula has done heroic service to his people. Lula, the son of peasants from the poor northeastern region of Brazil, is a badge of respectability for his idiosyncratic and unruly party. His popularity soars while that of fellow party members dwindle. Two weeks ago, two men associated with the president's party were arrested carrying $800,000 in cash ostensibly to pay for a dossier of corruption allegations against Lula's rivals. The leader of the Worker's Party resigned and five of Lula's ministers were indicted or accused by the prosecutor's office. Still, the poor couldn't care less how corrupt their leader's party is. Once a peanut seller and shoeshine boy, Lula increased the minimum wage and reduced the number of Brazilians living in abject poverty. He created 4.5 million new jobs during his presidency. The poor also know that no less than 11 million families -- roughly a quarter of the population -- benefit from Lula's social welfare schemes. "Brazil is now ready to transform itself into a great economic power," Lula said during his presidential campaign. With a gross domestic product of $1,577 trillion, Brazil is by far South America's economic giant and industrial powerhouse, and the world's ninth largest economy. Chuchu promises to accelerate growth in Brazil's economy. Lula, on the other hand, brought down inflation, which now stands at 3.8 per cent. And Chuchu must envy Lula the populist skills he himself so manifestly lacks. Chuchu wants to introduce legislation to lower taxes, reduce social security costs, and promulgate labour laws that make it easier for employees to hire and fire employees. His middle class supporters wholeheartedly approve. So what are the prospects for the election run- off at the end of the month? Heloisa Helena, expelled from Lula's Worker's Party, is the presidential candidate of the Socialism and Liberty Party. She claims to be the voice of the "true left". Her campaign infuriated former associates and was backed by the Communist Party of Brazil and the Unified Socialist Worker's Party, but Lula was more convincing as far as Brazil's poor are concerned. With Helena now out of the picture, Lula will surely pick up her vote in the presidential run-off. The middle class will face the poor at the polls. Lula ended his campaign last Thursday in Bernardo do Campo, an industrial satellite city on the outskirts of Sao Paulo where in the late 1970s he made his first political mark as a trade union leader. With 80 million African descendants, Brazil has the largest Diaspora outside continental Africa -- the overwhelming majority of Afro-Brazilians voted for Lula. It also has some 15 million Arabs, mainly of Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian origin. The wealthier German and Japanese minorities concentrated in the southern part of the country supported Chuchu. This must be one of the most exciting presidential elections in recent Brazilian history. But parliamentary polls are equally decisive for Brazil. Some 5,406 candidates are competing for 513 seats in the lower house of parliament. Brazil's system of proportional representation means that even if Lula wins the presidency later in the month his party might not muster a majority in parliament. Some 40 per cent of lawmakers in the outgoing parliament faced legal proceedings for graft and corruption related offences. It is easy to forget that just two decades ago Brazil laboured under right-wing military juntas. Unlike military generals across the Atlantic Ocean in Africa, Brazilian military men have rarely exchanged their fatigues for civilian suits. Sunday's presidential election was a reminder that those days are over. Some observers believe Lula's second term in office will be the making or the breaking of the Brazilian economy. Brazil is rich in natural resources, though it is largely energy dependent on other states. It is the world's largest exporter of coffee, sugar and poultry and has the world's largest commercial beef herd. But Brazil also has serious social problems. The gigantic divide between rich and poor, north and south, remains a perennial problem. The high incidence of HIV/AIDS and an abysmal education record are issues of grave social concern. Brazil's Education Minister Fernando Haddad pledged to "change the culture of education". Perhaps it is these social problems that explain the rise of the left and the centre-left in South American politics in recent years. Michele Bachelet, Chile's first woman president, centre-left, and Evo Morales, the first indigenous president in Bolivia's -- and South America's -- history won landslide victories. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is also setting trends in the region and beyond. It is likely that Lula, who is nobody's fool, knows what he should do to win the presidential election run-off. An objective judgement of Lula's performance is impossible. Lula's main legacy, most notably to challenge the traditional image of Brazil as a politically conservative and authoritarian state, is likely to linger on long after he is gone. The tide is with Lula for the presidential election run-off.
