Egypt's President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi paid an official visit to Saudi Arabia 23 April, exactly one year after the highly-publicised visit of King Salman bin Abdel-Aziz to Egypt in April 2016. The 12 months that separate the two visits have seen ups and downs in Egyptian-Saudi relations. The high point of tension between the two countries came when, suddenly, Saudi authorities announced last October that monthly oil shipments to Egypt would be suspended till further notice. In April 2016, the Saudi government had announced, during the visit of the Saudi monarch, that Saudi Arabia would ship oil products worth $700 million on a monthly basis to Egypt, on credit to be repaid beginning in 2023. By October, Egyptians were caught by surprise by the unprecedented decision to halt the shipments, which was interpreted as a sign of displeasure by the Saudis against the Egyptian government due to differences over Syria and Yemen. In addition, an Egyptian court decreed that two uninhabited islands at the southern entrance of the Gulf of Aqaba, Tiran and Sanafir, come under the sovereignty of Egypt and don't belong to Saudi Arabia. Back in March 1990, the Egyptian government had acknowledged officially that these two islands belong to Saudi Arabia. From 2016 till the meeting that took place between Al-Sisi and King Salman in Jordan last month where they both were participating in the annual Arab summit, Egyptian-Saudi relations became chilly, and many observers had cast doubt on their ability to overcome their differences over regional issues. A factor that weighed on these relations has been the crucial question of how to deal with Iran and, lately, Turkey in the wake of its military invasion of northern Syria last August. The increasing role and intervention of these two regional powers in Arab affairs would, undoubtedly, remain one of the factors that would shape relations between Cairo and Riyadh. While the Egyptian president and Saudi monarch agreed in the Saudi capital earlier this week that they cooperate in the fight against terrorism and would not allow foreign powers to intervene in Arab affairs, the summit was short on specifics as far as the latter is concerned. In the years to come, this issue is expected to remain a point of contention, particularly if the Trump administration works for a regional settlement in the Middle East that would give rise to some kind of alliance against Iran and that would bring together the United States and Israel, on the one hand, and, Egypt, Jordan (the two Arab states that have signed peace treaties with Israel) and the Gulf countries, on the other hand. The Riyadh summit has, nonetheless, put Egyptian-Saudi relations on a new path. The fact that the two states agreed to hold such a highly-publicised meeting, despite the challenges of the recent past, testifies to the need felt by both to come together to, firstly, renew their strategic partnership and, secondly, to work out differences in their respective approaches to the armed conflicts raging in Syria and Yemen. Whether they would be able to conduct relations in the medium- and long-term in a way to minimise old-time frictions around these two points remains to be seen. It is obvious that the two governments want to present a unified stand vis-à-vis these two destabilising crises. Solving them would, surely, strengthen Egyptian-Saudi relations. The summit came in the wake of a tour by US Secretary of Defense General James Mattis, his first since he assumed office, in which he visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, Qatar and Djibouti. One theme that dominated his statements during this tour is that Iran is a destabilising force in the Middle East, expressing growing concern on the part of the US administration over Iranian policies in the region, particularly in Yemen by providing the Houthis with missiles that target Saudi Arabia. According to Pentagon sources, the United States is looking into different options to aid and assist Saudi Arabia and the “Arab coalition” it leads in Yemen, of which Egypt is a member, to meet the security challenges facing this “coalition” in addition to defeating Al-Qaeda operating in the central and southern parts of the country. Furthermore, the US would work with member countries of the “coalition” to implement Security Council resolutions related to the Yemeni crisis. In Israel, General Mattis talked about the Iranian threat and the need to send a strong and clear message that Tehran should change direction and stop meddling in the region. In light of statements of the US secretary of defense, it seems that Washington will concentrate its efforts in the medium term on containing Iranian influence, which raises the question of whether Egypt would be willing, in the context of Egyptian-Saudi relations, to play a leading role in such a looming confrontation with Iran. The answer to this critical question would bear on the course of Cairo's relations with the Saudis, to whom Iran is an avowed enemy that must be dealt with, not necessarily militarily but by forceful actions by its Arab and international partners. One day before the arrival of President Al-Sisi to the Saudi capital King Salman appointed a new Saudi ambassador to the United States, who happens to be his son, which says a lot about the growing strategic alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia. After the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman went to Washington and met the new US president, becoming the first highly-placed Saudi official to confer with President Trump. This meeting proved to be a turning point in US-Saudi relations after eight years under former president Barack Obama, which had seen relations between Riyadh and Washington growing tense despite the results of the Camp David Summit in May 2015 between the former US administration and member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Where does Egypt stand in this strengthened alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia? Will it become party to this alliance with all that entails in terms of Egyptian foreign policy in the Middle East and Arab world? The answer to this question will be a significant factor in the future direction of bilateral relations between Cairo and Riyadh. The Riyadh summit that brought together the Egyptian president and Saudi monarch marks the end of an epoch and heralds a new phase in the “historic” and strategic relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Both are undergoing deep transformation from within in the context of a rapidly-changing geopolitical map in the Middle East, which provide opportunities and present challenges as to how the two countries will manage their strategic relations in this changing political landscape. They will certainly need all available diplomatic skills at their disposal to steer a clear and new course in bilateral relations. It is not an exaggeration to call the meeting of President Al-Sisi and King Salman an exceptional summit. The writer is former assistant to the foreign minister.
