When Iran first interfered in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad it never had a thought that the country was entering a bloody civil war that would continue for more than five years. Unable to deal with the problem alone, it asked Russia to get involved with its advanced military capabilities that could back up the Al-Assad regime. Talks are now underway in the Kazakh capital Astana this week sponsored by Russia and Turkey to find a solution to the crisis in Syria with little Iranian involvement. Peace may be on its way, but it will not be in a way the Iranians were looking for. As a new power-broker in the Middle East, Russia wants to reduce its military costs in Syria and to mend its relations with the Turks. The Astana talks will serve these goals for the Russians, no matter if Iran dislikes the idea of a political transition in Syria, mentioned in the previous Geneva Communique, as necessary to end the conflict. On 23 January, the Iranian delegation at the Astana talks was cornered when it heard that the Geneva 3 talks, which are supposed to take place on 8 February, will focus on the transition of power in Syria if the Astana talks succeed in holding the ceasefire between the government and the opposition, according to informed sources. The parties to the conflict are discussing how to extend the ceasefire. Russia and Turkey are willing to involve the opposition more in this process, even if the Iranians are unhappy about it. Iran rejected American involvement in the talks, but as the Russians wanted to see them involved an invitation was sent and the US ambassador in Kazakhstan has been attending the talks as an observer. For the new administration of US President Donald Trump in Washington it is probably too early to get deeply involved in the Syria talks, but this should happen at the next session in Geneva where the US should participate with a more senior representative. Astana could provide an excellent platform to highlight how Iran needs to work with the international community to create a lasting ceasefire and an end to the conflict in Syria if Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is able to play a stronger role domestically than the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. For Al-Assad the choices are limited as he is now very much dependent on Russian support and has signalled that he is ready to cooperate with the opposition and the Geneva 2 road map. If this does indeed come to pass, then Iran will have little room to manoeuvre. The US has said it wants to crush the terrorist movements in Syria, the most important of which is the Islamic State (IS) group or Daesh. If the Syrian government can make peace with the opposition, than all the parties, including Russia and Turkey, can collaborate with the United States in one campaign against IS. But this would be a huge challenge for Iran's ruling regime, which is supporting Al-Assad as a key regional ally. Its decision will be a test for the international community to see whether Iran is willing to cooperate. Iran has demonstrated that it has the diplomatic capacity to engage in international negotiations on the world stage, particularly on Syria. And it will be increasingly difficult for the regime in Tehran to translate military gains into political influence in the long term, particularly in Iraq and Syria. The Astana talks clearly emphasise that the supporters of the opposition and the major supporter of Al-Assad, meaning Russia, want to move from military involvement towards dialogue to end the conflict. Iran says that is also trying to resolve the conflict through political dialogue and that it supports free elections in Syria to decide the fate of Al-Assad. Soon Tehran will have to manage competing interests between the Kurdish groups and Turkey in Syria, particularly as the potential for escalating tensions between Tehran and Ankara over regional strategy has already been demonstrated. There are concerns that Iran may be excluded from deals between Russia and Turkey on Syria, as well as from Turkish intentions to establish a foothold in northern Iraq. The solution to these challenges is for Iran to accept a political solution to regional conflicts that is non-sectarian and will benefit all the parties involved. This means abandoning Al-Assad and adopting a fresh cooperative regional strategy. The Astana talks are not an end in and of themselves, and they are part of a long process to reconcile all the various factions in Syria. But the time has come for Iran to let go of the past and embrace a new future for the Syrian people.
