The headquarters of UNESCO, at Place de Fontenoy in Paris, from where I am writing this, is abuzz with the news that its current secretary-general, Irina Bokova, wants the top job in the UN. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is due to step down at the end of this year after serving two terms. Bokova's plan to seek the top UN job means means that UNESCO will need to hold elections for a new secretary-general this year instead of in 2017, as would otherwise have been the case. Some in UNESCO held that the deputy secretary-general of UNESCO could step in to serve as acting secretary-general until the end of 2017. However, this view has been dismissed on the grounds that the deputy secretary-general (currently Getachew Engida from Ethiopia) is appointed personally by the secretary-general, rather than elected by the executive assembly. As a result, the normally sedate international cultural organisation will soon erupt into feverish activity as state parties promote rival candidates for an election process that will take place sooner than normal. Although no names have been mooted yet as Bokova's successor, it has been known for months in the Arab region that Qatar plans to nominate Minister of Culture Hamad bin Abdulaziz Al-Kawari. He served as his country's ambassador to France, is fluent in French and represents a country that possesses resources that could be influential in these elections. Kawari, who recently published an autobiography (in three languages) detailing his cultural achievements, told me that he would distribute the book when election time comes. Rumours are also circulating in UNESCO corridors that the Yemeni delegate is toying with the idea of running for the post, and that Rabat is contemplating nominating a Moroccan cultural figure. The Egyptian position, meanwhile, remains shrouded in mystery. Last year it was rumoured that Cairo would nominate a well-known female candidate who had served as minister several years ago, and who has a record of success working with international organisations. It was believed, at the time, that it was just a question of choosing the right moment to announce her candidacy. However, months have passed without a word from Cairo regarding the identity of this figure, or whether she is, indeed, still interested in the post. There have been many suggestions as to why Egypt has been so slow in officially fielding a candidate for the top UNESCO position. Some have suggested that Cairo wanted to focus on winning a seat on the Security Council and that it was reluctant to nominate a candidate for the UNESCO post before this, so as to avoid any possible adverse repercussions from the electoral battles on its bid for the Security Council seat. The same argument was cited with regard to a nomination for Arab League secretary-general, a post that fell vacant with the end of Nabil Al-Arabi's term. However, Egypt has, indeed, won a seat on the Security Council, as had been expected. Also, the Arab League post has now been filled with an Egyptian candidate, former foreign minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit. Yet there is still no word about a nominee for Bokova's soon-to-be-vacant post, which leaves me no alternative but to shrug my shoulders whenever people in UNESCO ask me what Egypt's plans are in this regard. A veil of secrecy not only envelops the Egyptian position. Bokova has been just as reticent about her nomination to become Ban Ki-moon's successor. A delegate from a large Asian country told me that the Bulgarian UNESCO chief sent an official memorandum to all delegations instructing them not to issue any statements on this subject. There were two reasons for this. First, of course, there is no guarantee that she will win the seat of UN secretary-general, meaning that she would ultimately have to complete her stipulated term in UNESCO. Second, and more significantly, some delegations in UNESCO have begun to complain of the series of visits that Bokova has taken to various capitals in order to win support for her bid to serve as UN general-secretary. In a closed meeting of the executive assembly (as the ambassador of a friendly African nation told me), Guinea accused her of essentially financing her campaign for the top UN post using UNESCO funds. On Bokova's actual electoral prospects, I believe that these rest primarily on the fact that she is an unimposing figure who tends agree with the policies that decision-making centres want. Previous cases in the UN indicate that compliance is a main quality that the big five in the Security Council look for in a prospective secretary-general. The five permanent members on the Security Council have the right to veto a candidate they do not like, as occurred in 1971. I was in New York at the time, covering the subject for Al-Ahram. The Soviet Union used its veto against the strong Finnish candidate, Max Jakobson, so as to promote the Austrian candidate Kurt Waldheim. Many years later, the US used its veto to block a second term for Boutros Boutros-Ghali who went against Washington's wishes and submitted the UN report on the 1996 Israeli massacre at Qana in southern Lebanon. Washington also wielded the threat of its veto power to impose the last two secretary-generals: Kofi Annan and Ban Ki-moon. Also in Bokova's favour is the fact that she is a woman. The UN has never had a female chief. In addition, she is from an Eastern European country at a time when many believe that the region deserves its first chance to hold the top UN position. On the other hand, Bokova is not the only female candidate. In fact, four of the eight frontrunners for the post are women. Nor is the Bulgarian UNESCO leader the only candidate from Eastern Europe. There are five others (from Croatia, Moldova, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia). However, it appears that her most formidable rival is Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand and current head of the UN Development Programme. Clark meets the widespread demand for a female secretary-general and she comes from a region that has not yet been represented in the UN's top office. The Security Council is expected to conduct preliminary consultations this summer to identify prevalent views among its members. In October it will convene an official session for a vote on the next secretary-general. Ultimately, the outcome will not be determined by either the candidate's gender or his or her geographical origin, but rather by the consensus reached among the permanent members of the Security Council, and the US and Russia in particular. Once they make up their minds, other considerations — gender, regional affiliation and the like — will serve as packaging.
