Throughout most of its history, the Syrian city of Aleppo was a city state or the capital of the surrounding territory in what is now northern Syria and parts of southern Turkey. Today, there are strong indications that this ancient city may once again assume this role, but this time in a far more sinister way. The “mother of all battles” is what a looming showdown in Aleppo is being called. Revitalised Islamist rebel forces, fresh from victories in nearby Idlib, are preparing to mount an all-out offensive in the next few weeks. They aim to seize the remaining part of the city under government control. The stakes couldn't be any higher nothing less than the fate of the Syrian nation hangs in the balance and the final lines of division might be drawn here. The plan, drawn up by the insurgency's three most powerful regional backers, Turkey, Saudi and Qatar, is to overrun the entire northwest of Syria, creating a rebel-controlled “safe zone.” Through direct military intervention, the hope is to prevent the Syrian regime's aircraft and missiles from targeting it, thereby essentially setting up a de facto mini-state. To that end, there has been unprecedented cooperation and coordination between these powers, which have put aside their rivalries and differences after King Salman of Saudi assumed the throne earlier this year. This effort has seen them pour enormous financial, logistical and military resources into setting up what is called the “Fatih Army” or the Army of Conquest. Its activities are being directly controlled by an operations room in Turkey and intelligence officers on the ground. These moves were given the go-ahead by the US which, under pressure from these allies, again seems to have flipped its priorities in Syria from battling the Islamic State (IS) group to regime change against the government of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. However, it should be mentioned that after almost a year of US-led coalition bombing, IS has continued to expand and grow and now controls half of Syria and a third of Iraq. US policy here, as many had foreseen, is a confused and muddled disaster. Moreover, if the name of the Fatih Army sounds ominous, then its composition is even more disturbing. It is primarily made up of Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Nusra Front) and other hardline Salafi jihadist groups, including Ahrar Al-Sham. This “army” has already “conquered” most of Idlib province and is preparing to go for Aleppo next.
APATHY MEETS AL-QAEDA: That there is such apathy towards an Al-Qaeda army backed and sponsored by the Western world's predominant Middle Eastern allies, one that is preparing to take over Aleppo and possibly establish another caliphate similar, albeit hostile, to the neighbouring Islamic State, is indicative of what the four-year Syrian crisis has become. This once tolerant, secular, multicultural and multi-confessional nation, with a diverse society and rich heritage, may soon become home to two of the world's most noxious, extremist and violently fanatical statelets. In their wake, all of Syria's non-Sunni Muslim inhabitants will be ethnically cleansed and displaced. This is what happened in Idlib after it fell to the Fatih Army, and the city saw all of its Christians abandon their homes and flee to government-controlled areas, with little media attention at home or abroad. This will undoubtedly also happen in Aleppo, which has a very large Christian population comprised of various denominations, including ethnic Armenians. Leaders of the Christian community have sounded the alarm and warned that after surviving for countless centuries in one of the first lands inhabited by Christians their presence might be coming to an end. Again, the absence of any media concern about this impending calamity is very telling. The backers of the insurgency have now dropped any pretence of “moderate” rebel groups fighting the Syrian regime and have almost completely ditched and sidelined the umbrella opposition in exile, long touted as the “legitimate representatives” of the Syrian people. In their stead, we now have an Al-Qaeda army preparing to “liberate” northern Syria. Gone are all the grand slogans, along with the “moderate” rebel groups we have heard so much about in the news, who, after all, proved to be little more than incompetent and corrupt profiteers. These groups have now disintegrated, many of their former fighters joining the extremist jihadist groups who have also seized their sophisticated US-supplied weapons. This rebel farce was of course well known to the Syrians, but it was never newsworthy. The Syrians have always recognised that the only effective insurgents on the ground were the Islamists and the jihadists, and that the others were there for show and for the camera crews and media consumption. Maintaining this image no longer seems to be a concern, however. After failing to convince Al-Nusra Front to “rebrand” and ditch its ties with Al-Qaeda, the Fatih Army was formed as a more palatable and purely cosmetic, media-friendly, cover name. This is what the nations who claim to back the Syrian people's aspirations for freedom and a democratic, inclusive state have deemed fit to unleash upon them. After failing to topple the Syrian regime for four years, and realising there will never be any political compromise that would fit their goals, they have now decided to partition Syria and facilitate its partial takeover by jihadists. It does not seem that previous lessons have been learned, with Afghanistan being the prime precedent. The jihadist proxies that the external backers are using to fulfil their military ambitions cannot be controlled. Quite simply, such groups do not play by the rules, and they will turn on their backers the first chance they get and follow their own ideologically motivated agendas. The repercussions of doing so have always been, and will continue to be, extremely dangerous and profound. Al-Qaeda was spawned by the backers of the same sort of Islamists against the Soviets in Afghanistan. The destabilising fallout from this are still being felt today, with subsequent manifestations becoming ever more violent and extreme, culminating in IS. Let's not forget that for many months at the beginning of the Syrian conflict, the precursor to what was to form the IS's Syrian division was an integral part of the Syrian insurgency named Al-Nusra Front. When the “bad Al-Qaeda” went rogue, the very powers that today are backing the “good Al-Qaeda” started to bomb it, and to little effect. It is now just a question of when, not if, Al-Nusra Front becomes the “bad guys” and has to be bombed. Needless to say, the majority of Syrians refuse the partitioning of their nation and its takeover by extremists under any pretext. That this pretext should be “freeing them from tyranny and oppression” is yet another sad irony in the black comedy that is Syria's conflict. This is felt especially acutely in Aleppo, whose helpless people have endured years of a deadly stalemated war that has killed many of them and destroyed all they hold dear. It now seems they must again dread the day they will be “conquered” and “liberated,” as this will likely mean the loss of what little they still have left of their city and what little hope they still hold for the future.
EXODUS OF MINORITIES: In all likelihood, if Aleppo becomes the capital of yet another caliphate, the majority of its inhabitants will abandon it in droves and there will be a complete loss of its religious minorities and hence of its unique character and identity. People in the city are bracing themselves for the worst and for a momentous battle ahead. The outcome of this battle is by no means a foregone conclusion. Syria's ambassador to the UN has warned that Aleppo is a “red line” that, once crossed, would see the spread of the conflict to other nations. Whether these words are empty and mere rhetoric remains to be seen and depends largely on what the regime's prime backer, Iran, decides to do. This month, with regional tensions are soaring, is a sensitive time for Iran as it prepares to sign a historic nuclear agreement with the US. While the ball is now squarely in its court with regards to Syria, it may choose to delay its next move until the picture becomes clearer. Speculation is rife that along with the nuclear deal regional issues are also being hammered out. Could it be that Iran would accept the partitioning of Syria as long as it gets to keep a majority Shia and Alawi “protectorate” along the coast? Or is it sticking to its guns and thwarting the planned “mother of all battles” in Aleppo by demanding it be stopped, or threatening a serious escalation if it isn't? Another question is how the war that is currently underway in Yemen will affect Syria. The coming weeks may bring the answers to these questions. They will also be some of the most difficult the people of Syria and Aleppo have ever seen . The writer is a journalist based in Aleppo.
