Developments last week brought no breakthroughs in Yemen on either the military or the political track. The military campaign is circling in place, with neither side nearing the point where it could raise the victory flag or where it would scream for mercy and raise the white flag. If the purpose of war is to destroy the military capacities of the adversary in order to force him to surrender, in this war no one appears ready to give in. Ultimately, the solution to a war reflects the results on the battlefield. The work of diplomats is to translate the achievements of generals into written agreements and treaties. So let us turn to what is new, regardless of how limited or not new it is, in the “Storm” that has become flurries of blustering winds. The coalition has sustained its bombardment of what they call Houthi communications lines and last week it announced that they had killed the Houthi field commander. Prior to this, there came an announcement that coalition forces had killed Abdel Malak Al-Houthi, but that leader appeared shortly afterwards on television, calling for steadfastness and heralding approaching victory. On the other hand, there were reports, corroborated by Saudi statements, of reinforcement of Houthi military capacities in areas near the Saudi border. As for the humanitarian truce, it too is floundering and punctuated by aerial assaults against Saada (the Houthi stronghold) and retaliatory missile bombardments against Saudi cities near the border (particularly Jizan and Najran). In addition, Saudi officials claim that the Houthis are seizing food and medical relief shipments. If true, this further confirms the contention that aerial strikes will not achieve their aims without intervention on the ground. This is the missing premise in this war that, as a result, is becoming a protracted exercise that wreaks nothing but futile destruction. The political track has revealed no new developments. The negotiations called for by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon have not begun; their place and agenda have not even been set yet. The Camp David Summit between the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (which focussed on Iran, and then Yemen) has not quenched the Gulf's thirst as their demands for “qualitative” US support to halt or deter Iranian expansion went unanswered. Washington did not sell Iran to the Gulf. It is determined to press forward towards a final agreement between Iran and the P5+1 on the Iranian nuclear programme. Some maintain that, in so doing, Washington seeks to retain the Iranian “bogeyman” card, so as to perpetuate the dependency of GCC countries and absorb oil surpluses. Nor did the Camp David talks and the preparatory consultations that preceded them produce a formal defence pact, a Patriot missile shield, or a pledge to support a Gulf nuclear programme for peaceful purposes along the lines of the Iranian project. What it did yield were some proposed weapons deals and many statements and general pledges that did not depart from customary US stances. The result was the foregone conclusion of this summit in which only two Arab heads of state were on hand (those of Qatar and Kuwait), the others having delegated officials that were not of the appropriate status to meet with US President Barack Obama. Decisive Storm: On the military front, fighter planes of the Saudi-led coalition staged attacks against weapons depots located in the hills surrounding the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. Simultaneously, coalition air forces carried out raids against Saada. Security sources and eyewitnesses have described this latest wave of aerial assaults, which preceded and accompanied the humanitarian truce, as the fiercest so far since the military intervention began in Yemen on 26 March. Deafening explosions from the weapons storehouses that had been bombarded in Jebel Naqm to the east of the capital continued for hours while pillars of smoke soared hundreds of metres high and intense flames of fire lapped the skies. Eyewitnesses described it as a scene from Hell. The Houthi-run television station Al-Masira reported that Houthi forces had downed a coalition plane over Saada. The plane was a F-16 fighter flown by a Moroccan pilot. On Friday, Al-Arabiya cited sources as saying that Abu Ali Al-Hakem, the Houthi military and field commander in Yemen, had been killed. The satellite news channel described Al-Hakem as the number two man in the Houthi organisation after Abdel Malek Al-Houthi. His name is among those mentioned in the UN list of individuals to be sanctioned for obstructing the political process in Yemen. Also last week the Saudi-led Arab coalition reaffirmed its commitment to the humanitarian truce while it accused Houthi rebels of violating it 12 times. These occurred in attacks against Yemeni forces loyal to President Hadi in Aden, causing 30 dead and dozens wounded, and attacks across the border with Saudi Arabia at the time when the GCC-US Camp David Summit was in progress. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jobeir confirmed the coalition's commitment to the humanitarian truce in Yemen. He stated that out of its keen desire to help the Yemeni people, the coalition has undertaken urgent efforts to bring in aid by air and sea. The foreign minister also expressed the regret of coalition countries that the truce had not achieved its humanitarian purposes. This, he said, was because the Houthis and their allies had seized the food, medical and fuel supplies and prevented them from reaching the Yemeni people. He added, “the countries of the coalition believe that ongoing military activities by the Houthis and their allies in Yemen and along the Saudi borders constitute another grave violation of the truce. The violations monitored include 39 attacks against Jazan and 35 attacks against Najran. In addition, the Houthis have stationed missile platforms along the borders with Saudi Arabia.” He went on to stress that the coalition's commitment to the truce was contingent on it not being violated by the other side and that the coalition would respond forcefully and firmly against any continued violation. A severing of relations with Iran: As the battling in Yemen continued, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as though intent on sending out a reminder of its existence, fired warning shots in the direction of a commercial vessel in the Gulf. The vessel, carrying a Singaporean flag, had on an earlier date crashed into an Iranian oilrig. US officials announced that the UAE had sent over coastguards in response to appeals for help from the ship. Iran dispatched patrol boats in an attempt to intercept the Singaporean-registered “Alpine Eternity” in order to settle a legal dispute that arose when that ship apparently crashed into the Iranian oilrig on 12 March 2015, a US official said. As more and more ships arrive to deliver relief aid to the Yemenis, Iran has receded from its threat to send in a ship that it claims would bear humanitarian relief to the Yemeni port city of Al-Hodeida, which is under Houthi control. Tehran announced, instead, that it would send the ship, in coordination with the UN, to Djibouti. Meanwhile, President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, following through on Yemeni Foreign Minister Riad Yassin's threat to sever diplomatic relations with Iran, has recalled the Yemeni ambassador from Tehran. Camp David: Naturally, the Yemeni crisis was present in the recent Camp David Summit to which six heads of states from the GCC countries were invited. In the end, only two attended, the Emir of Kuwait Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah and the Emir of Qatar Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa. The Saudi monarch, King Salman, backed out at the last minute, announcing this decision, according to the journal Foreign Policy, only a few hours after the US secretary of state announced that the US would not conclude a formal defence treaty with Riyadh. Three other GCC heads of states followed suit. The summit was to address three main issues: defence and security cooperation between Washington and the GCC nations, terrorism and Iran. However, preliminary consultations indicated that chances of definitive breakthroughs on these issues were limited and that the purpose of the summit was more to put minds at rest. Cairo was not invited in spite of its close ties with the Gulf. Nor was Egypt's proposal for the creation of a joint Arab force on the agenda. In fact, the impression was that Washington wanted this project filed away and forgotten in some drawer so that the matters of assigning roles and forming regional arrangements for Gulf security would remain exclusively American concerns, pursued within the greater framework of US strategy. It appears that the most important achievement of the summit was the proposed arms deals for the Gulf. Last Wednesday, Said Al-Lawandi, an Egyptian international relations expert, likened US President Obama to an arms broker who sought to rescue his country's weary economy by exploiting anti-Iranian phobia in the Gulf, even though he has no choice but to be flexible with Tehran. “Obama is compelled to move forward positively with the framework agreement with Iran. He is obliged to his Western allies to show more flexibility towards Tehran,” the commentator said. Al-Lawandi added that, at the same time, “he and officials in his administration issue statements in support of the Gulf States, and to assure them that the US is on their side if any of them is the victim of an Iranian attack.” In the opinion of the director of the Doha Centre for Strategic Studies, Fahd Hamid Al-Harithi, the results of the Gulf-US summit were “less than hoped for”. In an interview with a Spanish news agency, Al-Harithi said that the summit did not give Gulf leaders what they had been looking for, such as a missile shield along the lines of that which protects Eastern European nations. Nor did there come out of the summit an explicit condemnation of Iranian interventions in the region, or a clear message warning Tehran that it would be punished if it did not cease its meddling in the internal affairs of Arab states. According to Al-Harithi, the summit also brought out contradictions. Obama sought to urge Gulf leaders to include Iran in their efforts to contend with regional issues, a position that throws into relief Washington's own confusion and wavering with respect to Iran. Obama's statements following the summit did little to alleviate Arab concerns. “We will expand our military cooperation [with the Gulf] in the face of a large array of threats, terrorism above all.” Notable for their absence here were the questions of Iran and the Houthis. He also said, “we have decided to broaden our relations and end the conflicts in the region and to call for a dialogue that includes Iran and the Sunna.” In addition, in the concluding statement prepared by the White House, “The US pledges to confront all external aggressions or any attempt to use force and undermine the stability of the Gulf.” The statement also broached the subjects of expanding military cooperation, equipping the Gulf with weapons and anti-missile systems, computer networks security, fighting terrorism and maritime security. El-Pais newspaper reported, citing US sources, that Washington is opposed to the creation of a joint defence system along the lines of NATO (in reference to the joint Arab force proposed by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi) because the US, itself, is capable of defending the security of the Gulf against any threat. The US has 35,000 troops in the region, aircraft carriers, warships and patriot missile systems, the sources said. The Spanish newspaper went on to observe that while Obama believes that engaging Iran in nuclear talks and obliging it to become a likeable member of the international community will prevent it from possessing a nuclear bomb, or setting into motion a nuclear arms race in the region, the Gulf countries are not convinced. They believe that the nuclear agreement with Iran will not only clear the way for it to manufacture an atomic bomb, but also enable it to become a regional power capable of altering regional balances. Significantly, in this regard, a Gulf source that was present at the Camp David Summit was cited by The New York Times as saying that Saudi Arabia might open some uranium enrichment plants, just as is permitted for Tehran.
