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African horizons
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 12 - 2014

Like a gifted child who never reaches its full potential, Africa is plodding along amid the horrors of war and the debris of corruption, lost and afflicted by the very things that should have saved it, its wealth of resources once drained by colonialists now being claimed by a parade of wily investors.
The vicious cycles of poverty and famine are being compounded by military coups, ethnic fighting, fundamentalist terror and foreign intervention. In more than one country, presidents seek lifetime terms in office, leaders face accusations of committing war crimes, and rapacious governments fail to tend to the needs of their nations.
And yet flashes of hope brightened the African scene in 2014. The continent had above-average economic growth that was fuelled by the rise of its primary export: raw materials.
Much of the new development in the continent is driven by foreign investors, often from faraway places. China, India, and Brazil are fast replacing the old colonial powers as active economic partners of African nations. But the continent's stability has been shaken by the surge of Islamist militancy, and France, once the colonial master, has once again stepped in.

FRENCH INTERVENTION: A wave of terror complete with atrocities, displacement of the population, and occasional foreign intervention has wreaked havoc in North Africa, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
In more than one country, Western powers have intervened to rescue ailing regimes in a bid to stop the tide of terrorism and protect essential oil and mining interests.
In May 2014, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian ordered French troops to deploy in several countries in the Sahel, including Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. With their headquarters stationed in Chad, the French sent 1,200 troops to the Sahel, backed with jets, helicopters and bombers.
Their job was to help stabilise regimes threatened by Azawad separatists and Al-Qaeda affiliates. To bolster their war effort, the French established an intelligence base and a drone-operating facility in Niger.
The moves reflected not only political concerns over the ramifications of militant Islam in the region and the welfare of nations dismembered by rebel attacks, but also the investment France has made in Niger's uranium mining sector, which has provided French nuclear reactors with fuel for the past four decades.
In Chad, the French also have a lot to lose if the country falls into chaos. Idriss Deby, president since 1991, is a close friend of the French government. Mali, another country where the French are involved, has been a main supplier of cotton to France for much of its modern history. The Central African Republic, a country rich in lumber, diamonds and tobacco, is also of crucial importance to France.

NIGERIAN MILITANTS: In oil-rich Nigeria the battle against Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group believed to have ties with Al-Qaeda, is far from over.
In April 2014, Boko Haram fighters abducted more than 200 schoolgirls and threatened to sell them as slaves. A few of the girls managed to get away, but the bulk are still held hostage. The Nigerian army claims to have reached a deal for their release.
Nigeria is Africa's largest nation and also one of its least stable. It has seen over 80 coups since independence in 1960, and much of the instability has been related to oil. The country's most notable humanitarian disaster occurred after the region of Biafra seceded from Nigeria between 1967 and 1970, triggering a conflict that left nearly one million dead.
Oil facilities in Nigeria are blamed for the rise of pollution in the Niger River Delta. The problem may cost up to $1 billion to address, but neither Shell, the primary investor in oil, nor the Nigerian government have taken serious measures to address the issue. In 2014, protests broke out in the Delta to demand action on the worsening environmental conditions in this oil-rich region.
Shell, the Anglo-Dutch company involved in oil production, had to pull its staff out from the country due to its association with Nigeria's late strongman Sami Abatcha. In August 2014, several environmental and human rights organisations released a report on Nigeria entitled “No Progress,” stating that the Nigerian government had yet to take measures on pollution in the Niger River Delta.
Nearly 70 per cent of the population of oil-rich Nigeria lives below the poverty line, according to experts.

OUTSIDE ATTENTION: France is not the only Western nation involved in African security issues. The US, which draws 10 per cent of its oil imports from Africa and intends to double that amount in the near future, has formed an independent military command for Africa and is increasing its military cooperation with several nations.
The US is focusing mostly on Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana and Angola.
Despite its recurring problems, Africa is also an emerging market that is attracting major European and American retailers including Carrefour and Walmart. Banks, including some specialising in small loans, are also setting up branches in various African nations.
With urbanisation and the growth of the middle class, analysts expect above-average growth in retail markets, which is likely to attract more investors from around the world.
To accommodate this anticipated growth, African nations have launched numerous infrastructure projects, focusing on roads, communication, education and health.
Many contracts have gone to Chinese companies, which among other things are involved in the building of a railway network linking the capitals of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at a cost of $3.8 billion. The network, due to be completed by 2018, is expected to slash the cost of transportation by one half.
China is also building dams in Sudan and Morocco, has oil investments in Sudan and Nigeria, and mining ventures in south and central Africa.

LIBYAN ARMS: The collapse of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 left Libya in turmoil, eroding the power of the central government and empowering rival militias vying for power and resources.
The Ansar Al-Sharia group may now have lost much of its control over Benghazi, but the situation is far from clear in the rest of the country. As Libya descends into chaos, traffickers in arms, fighters and refugees continue to pose threats to neighbouring countries. Oil supplies to the EU have been severely affected.
The massive stocks of arms that the Gaddafi regime accumulated over the years are now available to motley combatants and arms dealers with connections to terror groups.
According to the Libyan Ministry of the Interior, Libya has also become a conduit for illegal immigration from Africa to Europe.

KENYAN COMPLIANCE: The appearance by Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's founder, at the International Criminal Court in The Hague on 8 October was unprecedented. It was the first time that an incumbent president had submitted to the court's summons.
Kenyatta is suspected of involvement in crimes against humanity in connection with incidents that followed the 2007 elections in Kenya. His government promised compensation to the victims, but this did little to allay domestic grievances. Nearly 2,000 people were killed and 600,000 fled their homes in election-related violence in late 2007 and early 2008.
Meanwhile, in Sudan another president facing ICC charges is still ignoring the court's summons. Omar Al-Bashir, accused of war crimes in Darfur, has decided to run for another term in office in 2015. About 300,000 people are said to have lost their lives in ethnic and political conflict in Darfur.

BURKINA FASO'S EXAMPLE: Africa seems to be finally breaking the authoritarian mould that has loomed heavily on the continent for decades. Analysts cite the case of Burkina Faso as a harbinger of things to come.
When Blaise Compaore, the country's former president who had been in power for 27 years, contemplated amending the constitution to run yet again for office protests broke out in Burkina Faso's capital, Ouagadougou. Demonstrators demanded an end to his rule. In October 2014, protestors set fire to the parliament and commandeered state television. Compaore was forced out of office by his own army, and the country is now getting ready for elections in 2015.
Some analysts say that this may turn out to be Africa's future, with popular uprisings forcing dictators out of office. If this turns out to be true, this would be bad news for the leaders of Uganda, Togo, Benin, Congo, Rwanda, Djibouti and Sudan, all of whom entertain ideas about remaining in office for life.
Recently, Burundi's President Pierre Nkurunziza attempted to amend the constitution to get a third term in office. His bid failed, by one vote, to get parliamentary approval.
However, some African leaders have managed to insinuate themselves so deeply into the power structure of their countries that even in their absence members of their family are likely figures of future authority.
One example is Zimbabwe's first lady Grace Mugabe, who seems to be poised to replace her ageing husband Robert, who won a seventh term as president in 2013 in what many considered to be fraudulent elections.

ZAMBIAN COPPER: The death on 28 October 2014 of Zambian President Michael Sata was a blow to the workers' movement he led for years. His death may give China an edge in its quest to control Zambia's copper.
Unlike Sata, who resisted foreign control of the country's economy, Rupiah Banda, a former presidential candidate who lost to Sata in the 2011 elections and is believed to have a good chance of winning the next ones, is more amenable to Chinese investment.
China has invested heavily in Zambia's copper mines, and it also financed the 1,860-km railway line connecting landlocked Zambia with Dar Es Salam in neighbouring Tanzania at a cost of $400 million.

TUNISIAN DEMOCRACY: Of all the Arab Spring countries, Tunisia seems to be the one that has done most to deliver on its promises of democracy without ostensible reversals. It now has a new constitution, parliament and president, and its once dominant Islamist Ennahda Movement seems to have resigned itself to playing second fiddle to the rising power of the largely secular Nida Tounes.
Many observers hope that Tunisia will not only stay on the track of democracy, but will also offer inspiration across a region torn by self-doubt, divisions and ideological inconsistencies.
As Tunisia looks forward to a workable relationship between secularists and Islamists, many are lavishing praise on the legacy of the country's founder, Habib Bourguiba. But even Bourguiba's greatest admirers admit that his heavy-handed style, which his successor, ousted former president Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, maintained for years, is no longer compatible with the nation's democratic aspirations.


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