There are only 40 days left before the interim nuclear agreement with Iran expires on 24 November, and this week the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the country had still not implemented all the nuclear transparency measures it had agreed to carry out by late August, suggesting that little headway has been made in its investigation into Iran's suspected research into nuclear weapons. Nearly two months after a 25 August deadline to answer questions about the alleged activity that might be used to develop nuclear arms, the head of the IAEA made it clear that Iran had not yet fully done so. But at the same time a monthly report showed that there had been positive movements ahead of the November deadline for clinching a long-term deal. The IAEA report has not been published, though it has been seen by the Reuters news agency, and it makes clear that Iran is meeting its commitments under the temporary deal, as it and the major powers seek to negotiate a final settlement of a decade-old nuclear dispute. Nevertheless, the IAEA has also said that its questions have not been fully answered by Iran. “In order to resolve all outstanding issues, it is very important that Iran implements, in a timely manner, all practical measures agreed under the Framework for Cooperation,” Yukiya Amano, the IAEA chief, said on Monday in Vienna. It remains unclear whether Iran and the six negotiating powers of the so-called P5+1, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, will be able to meet the 24 November deadline to push back Tehran's atomic activities in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Fewer than two weeks ago President Hassan Rouhani of Iran showed himself in a state TV interview to be optimistic that a deal was reachable, and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci told the media in Vienna that though “we have a long way to go towards the deal, we are hopeful of it if all sides have the same outlook.” One way or another the deadline is approaching, and if the IAEA does not give its green light regarding satisfaction with the answers to the questions sent to Tehran, the talks could be in jeopardy. US President Barack Obama has said from his first day in office that it is a priority to put an end to the controversial nuclear talks with Iran and even during his presidential campaign he suggested talks with former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, Obama did not succeed in talking with Ahmadinejad since Iran's president missed the opportunity by loudly and provocatively denying the Holocaust and the right to exist of Israel. As a result, Obama waited for Iran to have a new and more moderate president before making a fresh attempt at more positive approaches. But in spite of Obama's interest in meeting the new Iranian president on the latter's first visit to the UN in 2013, according to sources close to Iran's government the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not allow Rouhani to make such a move and the two presidents ended up speaking on the phone instead. Both highlighted the fact that they needed to solve the nuclear issue first before taking any other steps. A year has passed since then and the nuclear file is still on the table. For Obama, who has another two years in office, solving this national security matter and closing it peacefully before leaving office could be considered to be one of his highest achievements during his presidency. Iran's main allies China and Russia are today having their own problems with the West, and they are using Iran as a bargaining tool. Iran and the US, despite all their differences, could be better allies for each other than Russia or China, no matter what the propaganda put out by either side may say. Observers believe that it is now urgent that Iran and the US reach a deal even if they have the option and possibility to extend the interim deal for a short time. Any extension could increase the pressure on Obama from the US Congress and could also increase the pressure in Iran from conservatives who are against the deal. Moreover, a deal could result in the normalisation of the two countries' relations, though this is unlikely to lead to the news that Obama is due to visit Tehran any time soon or have an audience with the country's supreme leader. What is happening now is a slow, but effective, normalisation that suits both nations. When they have finished with the nuclear file, they will be able to turn to talks about security matters in Iraq and Syria and other regional issues, these also leading to improvements in their relations. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last Wednesday after a meeting with the US Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris that “the deadline of November 24 is not necessarily a sacred day.” But it may be that the Iranian public has a different opinion, and, after so much back and forth and sanctions and humiliations, the 24 November date will turn out to be sacred to them. The Iranians are ready to move and close this chapter, whether or not some countries still remain reluctant and whether or not the IAEA is fully satisfied with the answers Iran has given to its questions. The IAEA has been trying for years to get to the bottom of Western intelligence reports suggesting that Iran is designing a nuclear warhead. Iran says the intelligence has been fabricated by its foes, but it has nevertheless promised to work with the IAEA since last year. For the time being, it seems that Iran has done its best to answer the IAEA's questions and that it now doesn't have anything else to say. It also said last month that the IAEA lacked “substantiated” evidence of its nuclear programme. All the evidence suggests that Iran and the US are keen to reach a comprehensive deal by the end of the year, and this will render redundant the IAEA and its unanswered questions. Jan Eliasson, the deputy secretary-general of the UN, is due to visit Tehran next week to discuss regional security matters just a week or two ahead of Iran and the Western powers resuming the final round of nuclear talks. Maybe the UN has a solution to offer Tehran to smooth out the talks to begin in November, suggesting that the UN could now act as a peacemaker between Iran and the US.
