The guard in black standing at the entrance to the Thursday market in Bint Jbeil murmurs into his walkie-talkie. For frequent goers to Souq Al-Khamis, the scene was unfamiliar. It reflects growing concerns and fears, following the bombing in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiya last week, that other Shia-populated areas under Hizbullah influence could be next in line. A tip off that an attack might target the souq provoked the heavy, if subtle, presence of security personnel. As the dust of Dahiya settled, a sea of questions and speculation emerged on the identity of the culprits and whether or not Lebanon was getting one step closer to “the Baghdad model”, as one Lebanese commentator described it. There was, nonetheless, consensus that Lebanon has had it coming. “The bombing in itself was not surprising,” commented one analyst. The course of events and security incidents during the past few months clearly suggested that such acts were expected. The Syrian war has been spilling over into Lebanon in a manner unprecedented since the uprising broke out in March 2011. The serious and growing involvement in the Syrian crisis of Lebanese actors suggested that the battle would be transferred to Lebanon itself. “We have seen Act 1 in the Jebel Mehsen-Bab Al-Tebana clashes in Tripoli, and this is Act 2 in Dahiya,” one analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly. Hizbullah opponents were quick to capitalise on the Dahiya event, showing little or no sympathy at all. One commentator said that Hizbullah was co-responsible for the bombing when it decided to reduce Syria to Al-Assad's regime and consider its people in revolt as mere “takfiri groups” (fundamentalist Sunni Islamist militias). Others argued that it was payback time for the party for its heavy involvement in the fighting alongside regime forces in Syria. A Lebanese high-ranking security official warned a few months ago that “Jihad in Syria would invoke a counter-jihad in Lebanon,” in allusion to Hizbullah involvement in Syria. Lebanon's army intelligence has also been ringing alarm bells regarding the entry of extremist groups and the smuggling of huge amounts of explosives into the country. On Sunday, the army stopped a convoy full of explosive material heading from Ersal, in the western Beqaa Valley, to Beirut. Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in his last speech called on Lebanese to settle their differences over Syria in Syria and to neutralise Lebanon and secure it against any spill over of the Syrian crisis. The bombing, and before that the two missiles that hit Dahiya, were a clear message that the battle over Syria will be fought in the heart of Lebanon and in Hizbullah's neighbourhood. But journalist Firas Al-Shoufi of Al-Akhbar daily provided another reading that closely linked the bombing to the battle for Al-Qusair, suggesting that following the defeat of the Syrian armed opposition there, its Gulf funders — particularly Saudi Arabia — declared war on the Hizbullah-Syria-Iran axis, believing that the best way to force Hizbullah to opt out of the Syrian battlefield was to pressure Hizbullah's popular base to put the brakes on its intervention in Syria. “The Dahiya explosion is only a message and a first move that will be followed by other attacks and will go in tandem with the plan to arm the Syrian opposition,” Al-Shoufi said. The Saudi factor has been widely cited, within pro-Hizbullah circles, as the number one suspect. One Lebanese editor concluded a lengthy article about the bombing by saying that it carried the “footprint of Bandar bin Sultan”, the present head of Saudi intelligence. “Bandar in Dahiya”, screamed another headline. Several writers recalled the massive explosion that took place in Dahiya in 1985 that targeted the late Sayed Mohamed Hussein Fadlullah. He escaped death, but hundreds of civilians were killed. The bombing was later known to be the work of the CIA, financed by Saudi intelligence. The liaison officer then was Bandar Bin Sultan. But the charges also reflect a tense relationship between Hizbullah and Saudi Arabia. In a recent statement, the Saudi foreign minister said that Saudi Arabia does not consider Iran an enemy, but it considers Hizbullah so. This was further complicated by statements by the Saudi ambassador in Lebanon in which he accused the Shia movement of “hurting Lebanese Sunnis”. The animosity between the two parties has never been clearer and out in the open. Hizbullah has attempted to downplay the tension, and routinely couches its criticism of Saudi actions in diplomatic language. Several analysts linked the Dahiya bombing to the political impasse Lebanon is going through, with the political class unable to form a national unity government coupled with security laxes. The army establishment coming under heavy attack from the 14 March camp recently, and the ever increasing number of Syrian refugees is straining whatever exists of state resources, prompting analysts to ask questions in the wake of the Dahiya bombing on the fate of Hizbullah and the implications of the Syrian war on Lebanon. One writer warned that the bombing was the last alarm bell that would ring for Lebanon before it slid into the same situation as Iraq or Syria. There remains, however, the analyst suggested, a window of opportunity if Hizbullah realises it, to exit the Syrian war and a wider conflict among “big powers”. A few weeks ago, Tayyar.org, the website of the Free Patriotic Movement led by Christian leader Michael Aoun, published a news report that Hizbullah was considering withdrawing its forces from Syria within weeks. The report was neither confirmed nor denied by Hizbullah sources. Party pundits agree that while the Dahiya bombing served as a serious warning, such a move was not likely, at least in the short term, because it has to do with higher strategic goals. Rather, higher security measures are in play in areas under Hizbullah influence. Sources close to Hizbullah circles also say that several attempts to plant explosives in areas under Hizbullah influence have been aborted. The presence of anti-Assad Syrian opposition in Dahiya or in the South is a real cause for concern among those involved in security planning. “If they are against the regime in Syria, why are they living in our midst,” asked one source close to Hizbullah. Hizbullah's Nasrallah is expected to give a speech Friday commemorating six years of the 2006 Israeli attack on Lebanon. The Dahiya bombing will surely occupy centre stage in the address, along with the party's next move on the Syrian crisis.
