When Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad threatened in a recent TV interview aired Thursday, 18 April, that the war in Syria would extend to other parts of the region, and which will pay a heavy price for the chaos that is becoming Syria, few in Jordan took his words lightly. As the Syrian crisis entered its third year, at no time had the implications of the war in Syria been felt so strongly across the region — particularly in neighbouring countries — as is now. And nowhere have those repercussions been as tangible as in Amman. Growing evidence suggests that the tiny Hashimite Kingdom is undergoing a policy shift regarding the situation in Syria. A spate of recent developments also put an end to the fallacy of a neutral Jordan. The latest press reports from the kingdom clearly suggest that Amman has finally submitted to both Western and Gulf pressure to spearhead efforts to bring down the Al-Assad regime. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported Monday that Amman agreed to open up its airspace to Israeli planes to monitor the situation in Syria, and possibly conduct military strikes when necessary. As of time of printing, there had not been any denial of the report from Jordanian officials. The Syrian crisis has presented Jordan with a series of unprecedented challenges that are not confined to its volatile security situation or tattered economy but extend to writing a question mark above the fate of Hashimite rule itself, in light of the sweeping waves of change the Arab world has witnessed and from which the kingdom is not immune. There is even growing consensus among a respectable group of politicians and media pundits that the outcome of the Syrian crisis will prove crucial in shaping developments in the kingdom. A year ago, former Jordanian prime minister Aoun Al-Khaswana described the impact of the crisis as “colossal”. Two weeks ago, incumbent Prime Minister Abdallah Al-Nusour held a parliamentary session devoted to discussing the implications of the Syrian crisis on Jordan. He summed up the situation by saying that the crisis had reached “dangerous levels”, posing threats to Jordanian national security.
CHRONOLOGY OF CRISIS: Initially, Hashimite rule walked a fine line, resisting all kinds of pressure exercised both by Western and Gulf states to force Amman to play a more effective role in bringing down the Syrian regime. The Jordanian leadership chose to keep things low key, particularly as the crisis had a polarising effect on Jordanian public opinion, dividing the elite between those who stood in support of the Syrian regime and wanted Amman to refrain from any intervention in Syrian affairs, and those — mostly Islamist — who called for a more robust role in finishing off Al-Assad. Jordanian involvement, however, was gradually becoming evident, and it was no secret that Amman joined ranks with the regional and international alliance against Al-Assad. A series of recent developments pointed to a Jordanian policy shift vis-à-vis the situation in Syria. Some date the change to the beginning of the year. The Syrian daily Al-Watan newspaper reported in an editorial on 16 April that, “Jordan's role in Syria has become clear and shameless.” Syrian TV aired interviews with young men who confessed to links with the Jordanian secret services in supporting terrorism in Syria and arming jihadi groups. Meanwhile, Al-Assad engaged in more direct finger pointing. For Jordanian analyst Talal Al-Khatatbah, it was the statements of Information Minister Mohamed Al-Moumni about the arrival of 200 US soldiers that put an end to the notion of a neutral Jordan. The minister said the troops would be received as part of a framework of bilateral cooperation to face up to security challenges and repercussions resulting from the Syrian crisis. Following Al-Assad's harsh criticism of the Jordanian role, a number of officials were quick to correct Al-Moumni's statement, including Al-Moumni himself. “The kingdom's position regarding what is going on in Syria has not changed and is fixed against any military intervention and calls for a comprehensive political solution.” Another statement by the general command of the Jordanian army said that the arrival of the US troops had “nothing to do with the situation in Syria, but comes in preparation for military exercises, with the participation of 19 countries, and will be held in the presence of the media.” Such statements, however, failed to comfort growing fears among Jordanians who see their country slipping into the Syrian quagmire. “The authorities can no longer claim that we will continue to remain immune from the atrocities going on in Syria,” Al-Khatatbah wrote in the daily Al-Arab Al-Youm newspaper.
THE JIHADIST INFLUX: But analysts like Nahed Hattar argue that neutrality towards events in Syria, which the kingdom strove to keep, was lost long before now. Until late 2012, there has been infiltration of fighters from Jordan to Syria. The number was set at a few hundred Salafi jihadists whose entry was not due to any systematic effort by the state. Clashes between Jordanian border police and some of these fighters and the periodic arrest of others, supports this claim. According to Hattar, the number of Jordanian jihadi fighters in Syria amounted to no more than 500, and for Syrian authorities, Amman was not held responsible for their entrance to Damascus. But a major development took place when Damascus was tipped off that a camp was set up in Jordan with the sole purpose of training defecting soldiers and Muslim Brotherhood elements. This prompted the Syrians to dispatch Faisal Al-Miqdad, deputy foreign minister, on 31 January to Amman to convey his country's concerns about the news. When Miqdad asked for clarification, the Jordanian side (the foreign minister and director of King Abdallah's office) both dismissed the information as baseless and stressed Amman's position of refraining from intervention in Syria or covering up the smuggling of fighters and arms shipments into Syria. The following months, February and March, witnessed an unprecedented flow of fighters and arms shipments, including hi-tech arms. Damascus sent its director of national security, Ali Mamluk, in a secret visit on 17 March (Assad referred to this visit in the interview) to meet with the Jordanian intelligence director and to discuss the issue. Amman's answer remained the same. But Hattar and other Jordanian analysts attribute to a high-ranking source in the security establishment, who remains anonymous, that Jordan opened camps with the purpose of training 5000 Syrian fighters. So far, 3000 trained fighters infiltrated into Syria through 13 illegal border points between Syria and Jordan, with at least half of them heavily armed, including anti-tank shoulder weapons. Such developments raised question about the fate of Jordanian-Syrian relations, and particularly security talks on putting an end to the infiltration of fighters across their shared border. Explaining the motives behind what increasingly appears not simply passive acquiescence, but a proactive policy shift, Jordanian analyst Hattar pointed out that internal divisions were the primary cause. Hattar described the Jordanian stand regarding the crisis as having less to do with the Syrian crisis and more to do with the internal political conflict in the country between forces that support the Syrian state (comprising mainly of the civilian, military and security bureaucracy, tribes and leftists and Arab nationalists) against the Muslim Brotherhood (the Islamic Action Front) and all pro-naturalisation forces — a codename for Jordanians of Palestinian origin. “These actors are tied to American, Qatari and Saudi circles and have influence in the Foreign Ministry and the Palace,” he wrote in the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar. Hattar explained that one of the main reasons for the change of policy had to do with the recent election results, when pro-naturalisation forces made electoral gains in parliament and were transformed into a power to be reckoned with. These forces, says Hattar, have no shame in showing their loyalty to Riyadh and Doha. American pressure has also been a crucial factor in the policy change. US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hegal revealed in his testimony before the US Congress that the Pentagon would “send 200 troops to help the Jordanian army to deal with the Syrian refugees, and prepare for the possible use of poison gas, and to provide command and control of operations, to accommodate post-Assad Syria”. Hagel disclosed that troops will replace 150 US soldiers present last year in Jordan, specialised in intelligence and communications, and closely monitoring the situation and identifying the possibilities in Syria developments.
JORDAN'S KEY CHALLENGES: Jordan is facing two key challenges: the influx of Syrian refugees and the possible return of jihadi fighters to Jordan. Jordan's premier Al-Nusour said that between 3000-4000 refugees enter the kingdom on a daily basis and that after two years of crisis the number of refugees had reached 470,000 (UNRWA statistics) in a country with a population of 6.3 million. The crisis is taking its toll on an already weak economy, on security conditions, and on the political conflict in the country. The number of refugees, according to Al-Nusour, is expected to triple by the end of the year. Al-Nusour added that other phenomena that pose a serious threat to national security include the increased mobility of Islamist and armed opposition forces. There is growing fear that Jordan will suffer a backlash on the return of Jordanian jihadists, or even with an influx of Syrian fighters. Al-Nusour expressed concern over the possibility of having such groups carry out terrorist attacks in Jordan as the Syrian state gets weaker and the groups grow stronger, and better armed. “Syria would be transformed into a haven for terrorist and extremist groups, which will threaten the security not just of Jordan but also Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.” Few commentators within the kingdom itself are surprised by Jordan's increased involvement in the battle against the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. The kingdom, they argue, is executing an operational role that has been set for it since the inception of the Syrian crisis. Others see Jordan as only “reacting”, rather than acting, since it has been inundated with an unprecedented wave of Syrian refugees that put great pressure on the economy and security situation. Another compared the kingdom's role in the Syrian crisis with its position during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 when it was tasked with certain security operations, including the takeover of Baghdad Airport and safeguarding 500 kilometres of Iraq's border, relieving the US occupation army and receiving $700 million in return.
