Caracas is on the cusp of a new era. Echoes of America's backyard rang loud this week when the Western media swooped on Venezuela's president-elect Nicolas Maduro. And, they were heard again threatening socialism in South America's leftist democracies. The lessons from one democracy to another need not map neatly unto the next. There is a whole discussion to be held in Caracas. There were shades of Florida 2000. The late socialist leader Hugo Chavez's chosen successor Maduro won Venezuela's presidential election by a whisker but he now faces opposition protests plus a host of economic and political challenges in the oil-rich nation. For those who have learned to doubt the wisdom of Western intervention into the domestic affairs of developing nations, this argument in Venezuela about national sovereignty points to a simple conclusion: Gringos keep out. Yes, the world is focussed on the Boston bombings and on the earthquake in Iran, but the Venezuelan vote is proof that South America will become politically stable only when it becomes more prosperous. Much of the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean is starting to enjoy that prospect. Most observers have long assumed that Maduro is a shoo-in to remain Socialist, Leftist leader of Venezuela after the death of Hugo Chavez. Political uncertainty threatens to reinforce Maduro's natural caution. The 50-year-old former bus driver, Maduro, whom Chavez named as his preferred heir before dying from cancer, edged out opposition challenger Henrique Capriles with 50.7 per cent of the votes in Sunday's election, according to election board returns. Capriles took 49.1 per cent, a difference of just 235,000 ballots. Please have a sense of proportion. Capriles and the West reject the result. A weakened Maduro may neither be willing or able to push the Socialist changes inspired by Hugo Chavez. Nobody should look to Maduro's Venezuela for any new steps over the next year. Neighbouring nations look vulnerable. Washington under the leadership of United States President Barack Obama takes an uncompromising approach to leftist leaders in South America. Excited newspapers headlines in the West that announce a triumph of the Venezuelan compradore classes seem overestimated. An electoral defeat albeit by a hair's breadth, threatens Venezuela's budding Socialism. Fed up with leftist experiments, Venezuelan voters have turned to traditional right-wing parties. Capriles, whose strong showing beat most forecasts, refused to recognise the result and said his team had a list of more than 3,000 irregularities ranging from gunshots to the illegal re-opening of polling centres. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, meanwhile, is gleefully portraying the capriciousness of Capriles as a joke. Such scorn for Capriles' political predicament was predictable. Yet many in South America saw Capriles' demands as blackmail. “I didn't fight against a candidate today, but against the whole abuse of power,” said Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of oil-rich Miranda state, demanding a recount. Still, many in South America share Capriles' desire for less intrusive regulation by government. Venezuela's election commission said the margin of 1.6 percentage points is irreversible, after opposition demands for a recount. Maduro and Capriles are at opposite ends of the social spectrum in South America; the results of the Venezuelan elections on Sunday were a precursor of broader political instability. Yet Maduro did not win the majority he promised the followers of Chavez. Sunday's ballot gave Maduro — the political heir of Hugo Chavez — a victory margin of 1.6 percentage points, according to the Venezuelan National Electoral Council. His pro-business challenger, Henrique Capriles, said the result might have been manipulated and insisted on a vote-by-vote audit. Whether his strategy is wise is another matter. Capriles appears to take too little heed of rank-and-file Venezuelan politicos' views. No wonder he is disliked by Venezuela's poor and disadvantaged. “This system is collapsing, it's like a castle of sand,” Capriles lamented. The capricious Capriles is called “Prince of the Bourgeoisie” and he in turn dubbed Maduro as the Devil incarnate, or “Satan”. A Pyrrhic victory? Capriles, has refused to accept the results of Sunday's presidential election in Venezuela until votes are fully audited. The electoral commission declared that the results of the election were “irreversible”. However, the former colonial power Spain, France and the United States declared that they will not recognise Maduro until a manual recount is made. The rigours of Venezuelan politics have exaggerated the impression that Maduro is a bad looser. But Capriles has shown little aptitude for the more boring bits of Venezuela's bourgeoisie. According to the Venezuelan National Electoral Council, 170 foreign observers were invited to accompany the election, but not formally observe. Maduro told former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, who was in Venezuela during the election as an Organisation of American States representative, that he intends to “improve” relations with the United States. No wonder Capriles is popular in the West. Yet, his popularity will not last. Maduro, on the other hand, is portrayed as a sop to growing scepticism about South American socialism. He will hold the office until January 2019 to finish off Chavez's term. Maduro, 50, proclaimed a new era in the Bolivarian revolution begun by his predecessor and said his victory was further proof that Chavez “continues to be invincible, that he continues to win battles”. The former bus driver and trade union negotiator said he was the target of a “dirty war”. “There is an international operation to attack Venezuelan democracy,” he said. “I will show no weakness against those who meddle with this country's sovereignty.” The wings of the leftists, after the death of Chavez on 5 March, are clipped. Chavistas in central Caracas launched fireworks and honked their car horns in celebration, but a sparky performance by middle-of-the-road Maduro may pull the Venezuelan Socialists back to the centre of South American politics. The election result proclaim that being Venezuelan does not have to mean that South Americans must share the Socialist zeitgeist that has swept through the continent after Chavez came to power. For much of the campaign, Maduro setting the agenda, declaring his unswerving rejection of callous capitalism and pulling the entire South America to socialism. What did it take to make both sides to talk? Inflation, which is likely to exceed 30 per cent this year, is among the world's highest. An inaugural address is not a work programme, and Maduro understands the implications. His was an unapologetic statement of the belief of Chavez in the power of socialist government as opposed to business. The Venezuelan economy, however, is heading for recession, despite the fact that oil, its mainstay, is selling for over $100 a barrel. That, combined with declining foreign reserves and increasing indebtedness, will force Maduro to make tough decisions on funding for the social programmes that are the regime's main claim on the allegiance of supporters. That means that the stage is set for a year of crises. Capriles has been trying for most of the past year to focus the Venezuelan voters' attention on the economic problem. The risk is that under Maduro's leadership, the private-sector re-leveraging will be dampened by public sector retrenchment, a prospect that Maduro fears. Yet he is brimming with confidence, at least in public. “My victory is legitimate. Even if I would've lost by one vote, I would have accepted the result,” Maduro thundered addressing thousands of his supporters after results were announced. Acting President Maduro, who was personally endorsed by Hugo Chavez, is also facing pressure from the increasing impatience of Venezuelans with the country's state of affairs. The Maduro government has no mandate for imposing the radical socialism to which it is wedded. But nor can it retreat without triggering a bitter squabble over Chavez's legacy. Maduro also vowed to “strengthen” Hugo Chavez's socialist revolution, which vies to keep key industries in the hands of the Venezuelan state. Voting in the shadow of Chavez, Venezuelans have their thumbs on the socialist scale. Venezuela, of course, is not inured to corruption. Maduro came up with a coherent plan for advancing the socialism of Chavez. As long as the Machiavellian Capriles does much mischief, the Venezuelan state's social and economic problems will become ever harder to solve. Maduro's popularity in such a case will fall steadily. Especially if he starts to feather his own nest, free from the legacy of Chavez, as his detractors declare. Maduro has, however, shown no sign of a let-up.
