When former prime minister Najib Mikati announced his long-delayed government in January 2011 it was described by antagonists as “a Hizbullah government”, although the Islamic resistance's political wing had two ministers in it only. Mikati's successor, Tammam Sallam, who was named this week prime minister designate, is struggling to avoid being perceived as beholden to the 14 March camp, as well as to live up to the image he is painting of himself as a consensual candidate. As Sallam continued consultations this week on Cabinet formation, two key issues will prove decisive on whether or not his Cabinet will eventually see the light of day: a consensual electoral law and the policy line on Syria. Law-makers were expected to convene Wednesday at the request of parliament speaker Nabih Berri to discuss amendments to an electoral law after a draft law known as the “Orthodox electoral law” was dropped. Sources close to Sallam told Al-Ahram Weekly Tuesday that he would not seek to have a confrontational government that could further destabilise an already volatile situation in Lebanon. They acknowledged that the undertaking was not expected to be smooth sailing, but that Sallam had good communication with all parties — including the 8 March camp and Christian leader Michael Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement — and that should help in the consultation process. With a life expectancy of until the elections are over, few see hope that the Sallam cabinet will turn out to be a national unity government. It will be a government “of national interest”, as Sallam described it. Under the Lebanese constitution the prime minister designate has a period no less than a month and no more than six months to form a cabinet. Sallam sounded aware of his cabinet's mandate, as he defined it as “an election cabinet” whose top priority was to issue an election law and supervise parliamentary elections. He added a third goal his government would seek to achieve: that being to keep Lebanon stable and secure. This might prove an extremely difficult challenge, however, in light of the country's involvement in the Syrian quagmire. It was the Syrian factor that led to the collapse of Mikati government and is likely, according to Lebanese observers, to determine the fate of Sallam's cabinet too. Some Lebanese politicians beg to differ. Nohad Al-Mashnouk, a law-maker from the Saad Al-Hariri parliamentary bloc, has been boasting that Sallam is the first Lebanese prime minister not picked by the Syrians since the 1990s. Some even suggested that Sallam's appointment heralded the return of Saudi influence on Lebanese politics. Although details of the deal that forced all parties to stand behind Sallam's nomination remain vague, the way his appointment was made public — following a visit to Saudi Arabia — reflects the country's dysfunction and the power of external patrons over its politics. Some analysts argue that whatever the deal was, the overarching goal uniting Lebanese parties from across the political divide was how to navigate through the murky waters of a turbulent region. Sallam appears quite aware that his predecessor took five months, from the date of his appointment, to finally announce his government. Bickering over posts and their distribution among political rivals (particularly the oil and energy portfolios) as well as the government's policy line on the Syrian crisis might jeopardise the cabinet formation process. Sallam pledged to continue the policy of steering clear of the Syrian quagmire. But such too was his predecessor's pledge, which failed to materialise. Under Mikati's mandate, Lebanon plunged deeper into the Syrian crisis. The country served as a launch pad for arms and fighter smuggling into Syrian territory. Lebanon — particularly Tripoli — has been paying a heavy price for this policy. When asked about his views on the Syrian crisis, Sallam made rhetorical remarks, saying that he is “with the Syrian people's right to freedom and democracy and delegation of power through elections” but stands “against the armed militias”. Whether Sallam can stop the stream of fighters and arms from Lebanon will depend on the existence of political will among all parties concerned, not just him. In announcing his acceptance of the premiership post, Sallam, who is the scion of a prominent Sunni family in Beirut and whose father occupied the same post in 1953, made also rhetorical remarks about the right to resist occupation, but insisted the decision to go to war should remain the ultimate prerogative of the Lebanese state. Thus his position on Hizbullah is clear. There has been no official comment from Damascus on the Sallam appointment. Syria has had the biggest influence in Lebanese politics for decades, and despite its withdrawal in 2005. There are two scenarios regarding government formation: first, to have a small cabinet comprising of Sallam and 14 ministers only, mainly with a technocratic majority; or second, a cabinet of 30 ministers — like previous governments — with posts distributed according to the percentage of law-makers each party has in parliament. While Sallam is in favour of the first formula, both 8 March and the Free Patriotic Movement are in favour of the second. Sallam insisted in an interview with the daily Lebanese Al-Akhbar Tuesday that his cabinet's first and foremost mission would be to supervise elections. “This is an election cabinet,” he said. Posts, therefore, should not be politically distributed. He underlined that his government would not be part of any effort to delay or cancel elections. Sallam said that the only hurdles facing cabinet formation were procedural, related to elections management. But Sallam also acknowledged that there are other key and urgent issues that cannot wait until elections are over, including the unfolding situation in Syria, the crisis of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, seeking international aid to face this crisis, budgetary issues, and keeping the country stable and secure. But with a country whose stability largely depends on what happens beyond its borders, Sallam's mission may prove impossible.
