Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is facing difficulties trying to form a new durable government following indecisive 22 January elections that saw a clear split in Israeli voter preferences between rightwing and extreme rightwing parties, on the one hand, and so-called centrist and quasi-leftist parties on the other. Netanyahu's main problem seems centred on the utter lack of confidence and bad chemistry between secular and religious parties that would form the next coalition government. Barring a last-minute deal, Israel's next government is expected to exclude the main Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, including Shas, a hitherto consistent ally of Netanyahu's party, the Likud. Netanyahu has been making strenuous efforts to include Shas in the next government in order to preserve the traditional alliance with “the Haredi religious public in Israel”. However, an agreement between two other likely coalition parties, Ha-Bayt Yehudi (The Jewish Home) and Yesh Atid (There is a Future) seems to have ruled out the inclusion of Shas or the other Haredi party, Yahdut Hatora (United Torah Judaism) into the government. The Jewish Home is a religious Zionist party that is resolutely opposed to any peace deal with the Palestinians involving Israeli withdrawals from the West Bank, especially Jerusalem. The party adopts a racist Jewish supremacist ideology. It opposes the principle of equal citizenship for non-Jewish citizens in Israel. It calls for the annexation of the entire West Bank, the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority and the progressive expulsion of Palestinians from their ancestral homeland. The Jewish Home has 13 seats in the 120-seat Knesset or Israeli parliament. The other party, Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid, is excessively secular and is vehemently opposed to the preferential treatment meted out to religious parties, especially the exemption of their followers from serving in the army as well as the immense social benefits they receive without carrying out any national duties or public service. With the Haredi parties seemingly out, the next Israeli government will be based on a narrow majority of 61 or 62 seats out 120 constituting the Israeli parliament. Such a government, pundits say, would likely be unstable and unable to make strategic and fateful decisions pertaining to such issues as peace with the Palestinians, the Iranian nuclear issue, as well as the paramount task of approving budget allocations.
A TIGHT CORNER: Netanyahu has until 16 March to finish forming the government. In case the settler party, Bayt Yehudi, becomes a coalition partner — as is widely expected — Netanyahu's window of manoeuvrability vis-à-vis the Palestinian issue will be very narrow. One veteran Israeli journalist opined that the next Israeli government would be either a government of national paralysis or one short-lived. “The government, given what we already know its composition, will not have a consensus on many important issues. Hence, I expect Netanyahu to spend much time trying to fix the glue keeping its cacophonic components together,” said the journalist. According to the Hebrew press, the likely distribution of key portfolios, given the overall outlook today, will be as follows: Netanyahu will remain prime minister; Yair Lapid will be foreign minister, Naftali Bennet, head of the Jewish Home, will be finance minister, and Avigdor Lieberman, the extremist head of the predominantly Russian immigrant party Israel is our Home, will be Israel's next defence minister. A gung-who politician, Lieberman, pundits say, could get Israel involved in undesirable wars in Gaza and the West Bank. His possible adventures could entangle Israel with neighbouring countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon. As to Bennet, he is expected to give settlers in the West Bank preferential treatment in budget allocations for settlements.
OBAMA'S NEAR VISIT: In case Netanyahu fails to form his government before mid-March, it is highly expected that President Obama will either cancel or postpone his visit to Israel-Palestine, slated to take place 22 March. American and Israeli sources have been at variance as to the goals Obama would like to achieve on his visit to Israel-Palestine. American sources said Obama would only be listening to what the new-old leadership in Israel have to say about the three main issues to be discussed, including the Palestinian problem, the Iranian nuclear issue, and the situation in Syria. However, some Israeli sources expect Obama to press Netanyahu to “stop dragging his feet” with regard to the Palestinian problem. The Hebrew media reported Tuesday that Obama asked Israel to withdraw from the West Bank. If true, Israel is likely to reject the American request as Netanyahu feels the “balance of power” with Obama tilts in the Israeli premier's favour. In any case, all parties concerned appear to agree that Obama will have a hard time convincing the Israeli leadership to make genuine concessions that would pave the way for a real breakthrough in the moribund Middle East peace process. This week, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met in Riyadh with visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry. Abbas reportedly warned Kerry that unless the US pressures Israel to stop settlement expansion, there would be no hope for reviving the peace process. Kerry, for his part, hoped that he would be able to build on what had already been achieved. However, it is not clear how significant “what has been already achieved” really is, given the remaining gap between the two sides. Last week, Israeli sources said the Israeli government would not announce fresh plans to build new settlements for the next two or three weeks in deference to Kerry. Palestinians, for their part, scoff at the Israeli gesture, with one Palestinian official saying: “Peace requires more than just a cosmetic step; peace requires sincerity.”
